The Wisconsin Badgers do need to beat the Nebraska Cornhuskers on Saturday, but while one can accurately say that Wisconsin urgently needs a victory, this game is more precisely framed by the need to NOT LOSE.
When teams pursue NCAA Tournament bids, there are various kinds of games a team must handle in February and early March. Some games are resume enhancers, wins over good teams which noticeably improve an overall profile. Those wins take a team from a bubble position to a spot several places above the bubble cut line, or from a good bubble position to a place safely inside the NCAA Tournament field. The cost of losing is not found in falling down the seed list, but in failing to improve the profile and create a much more secure position.
There are battleground bubble games in which teams face relatively equal opponents. The value of a win is found as much in hurting an opponent’s bubble chances as in improving one’s own. The costs of a loss in these situations are more substantial if the bubble positions of the two teams are dead-even at tip-off time. A loss might not have a massive effect on one team’s own bubble position, but the fact that the loss elevates the winner’s bubble position creates a problem.
The third basic kind of bubble game is the one the Badgers will play against Nebraska on Saturday. Wisconsin is somewhere between a pure bubble team and “safely in” the tournament right now. A loss to Nebraska would reduce the “safely in” status and move Wisconsin closer to a place of uncertainty. The Badgers would still be in the tournament, but a loss to the Cornhuskers means that a losing streak could then put them on the bubble. The Badgers have some margin for error, but a loss to Nebraska would reduce a lot of it.
The good news: As long as Wisconsin doesn’t stumble here in Lincoln or against Northwestern, the Badgers should be fine. UW simply has to make sure it doesn’t make its existence a lot more difficult and complicated against Nebrasketball.