The Wisconsin Badgers have evolved as a program over the years. Their NCAA Tournament history has been dissected from several different vantage points here at Badgers Wire. One of the things we learned in our study of UW in March Madness is that Wisconsin has become more comfortable as a higher seed over time. Wisconsin lost three of its first four NCAA Tournament games as a higher seed, and won four of its first six as a lower seed… but those patterns have given way to something very different over 26 years. Wisconsin has become a lot more comfortable as a higher seed. That 1-3 record as a higher seed in the late 1990s has become a 25-10 record as a higher seed today. Conversely, the 4-2 record as a lower seed, after the 2000 Final Four run, is now a 9-12 record as a lower seed. Change is the constant for Wisconsin in its NCAA Tournament history.
So it also is in terms of the kind of program Wisconsin has become.
In 2002 or even 2007 or 2010, it was not entirely accurate to say that Wisconsin was a “Sweet 16-level program.” You could make the argument, but you would need to overextend your argument to sell skeptics on that idea.
Wisconsin had reached the Sweet 16 or better in 2000, 2003, 2005, and 2008, four times in nine seasons. That is strong, but given that Wisconsin’s return to the NCAA Tournament (after a 47-year absence) occurred in 1994, and given that UW failed to make the Sweet 16 in 2009 and 2010, the Badgers’ four Sweet 16s in a nine-season period were situated within a larger period of 17 seasons (1994-2010).
Entering the 2010-2011 college basketball season, Wisconsin had made one Sweet 16 (2008) in the previous five seasons. A 1-in-5 success rate and a 4-in-17-season success rate make it harder to look at that nine-season strip from 2000 through 2008 and give it undue weight in the conversation.
Wisconsin entered the 2011 season needing to regularly park itself in the Sweet 16. The Badgers had a few moments of success in the NCAA Tournament, chiefly the 2000 run to the Final Four, but their Elite Eight in 2005 was built on three wins over double-digit seeds due to a “bomb shelter bracket” which opened up in their favor. Wisconsin was knocked out in the round of 32 as a No. 2 seed in 2007. It got blown out in the second round as a 4 seed in 2010.
Wisconsin needed to do better, and one of its flaws in March through 2010 was that when it did lose, it usually lost by a lot: From 1994 through 2010, Wisconsin lost 14 times in the NCAA Tournament. Nine of those 14 losses were by double figures. From 2006 through 2010, Wisconsin lost five games by an average of just over 14 points: The margins of defeat in those five NCAA Tournaments were 19, 6, 17, 11, and 18.
We all know that Wisconsin did indeed evolve as a program in 2011 and the rest of the 2010s. The Badgers made back-to-back Sweet 16s for the first time in 2012. They made back-to-back Final Fours in 2014 and 2015. They made back-to-back Sweet 16s in 2016 and 2017 under Greg Gard, which meant they reached the Sweet 16 in four straight seasons from 2014 through 2017.
What is fascinating to note about Wisconsin’s clear rise to a noticeably higher level in college basketball is that as this ascendance occurred, the margin of defeat in Wisconsin’s NCAA Tournament losses just as clearly decreased.
There is a strong correlation between the depth of a Badger tournament run and the margin of defeat in the NCAA Tournament.
Get this: From 2011 through 2019, Wisconsin has played in eight NCAA Tournaments. In the six NCAA Tournaments from that time period in which Wisconsin has made the Sweet 16 or better, the Badgers have never lost by more than seven points. Their average margin of defeat: 3.3 points.
In the two NCAA Tournaments from the past nine years in which Wisconsin did not reach the Sweet 16, UW’s margin of defeat is 14.5 points: 11 in 2013 against Ole Miss, 18 in 2019 versus Oregon.
As a bonus: Wisconsin’s 2003 Sweet 16 team lost by six points (to Kentucky). The 2005 team lost in the Elite 8 by six points (to North Carolina).
Wisconsin’s better NCAA Tournament runs have ended with closer losses. The NCAA Tournaments which ended on the first weekend have normally involved more lopsided margins of defeat.
The rare exceptions: The 2000 Final Four team lost by 12 to Michigan State. The 2008 Sweet 16 lost by 17 to Davidson. The 2004 team didn’t make the Sweet 16, but it lost a close game, by four to Pittsburgh.
Usually, though, this has held true: If Wisconsin gets to the Sweet 16 or better, its NCAA Tournament loss has been very close. If not, the Badgers have lost by double figures.