Had the Wisconsin Badgers lost to Michigan State this past Saturday, they would have been in genuine bubble trouble — not worse than the Minnesota Golden Gophers, but enough that they would have needed this game in Minneapolis on Wednesday night for their own situation.
Had Wisconsin lost to Sparta this past Saturday, the Badgers would have been 12-10, which — even with quality wins on the slate — is dangerously close to the NCAA Tournament’s bubble cut line. It would have been necessary for UW to beat Minnesota to alleviate bubble pressure.
Because Wisconsin defeated Michigan State, however, this game is not a supreme bubble pressure-cooker for the Badgers. They’re not an NCAA Tournament lock, but they are well inside the cut line and in a position where one loss won’t significantly dent their hopes. They would need to hemorrhage losses and go into a prolonged downward spiral. Given that they have a bunch of home games coming up in February, that is not likely to happen. The value of a win over Michigan State will substantially boost their profile and ensure that if they lose just a few more games — not a large bunch, but only an occasional game here or there — the Badgers will make the Big Dance.
The real value of this game for Wisconsin, then, is not to make sure it gets into the NCAA Tournament (though that is certainly a part of the picture). It is to make sure Minnesota does NOT.
The Badgers can lose this game and still feel very good about their NCAA position. Naturally, they want to further solidify their position, and a win would do precisely that. There is value to be gained for Wisconsin in this contest on Wednesday. We’re not saying or suggesting there isn’t any value to be found for the Badgers on their own terms.
However, the BIGGEST source of value for Wisconsin does not pertain to the Badgers themselves, at least not directly. The biggest source of value for UW on Wednesday is to take a bubble team, Minnesota, and push it into the NIT.
We have discussed Wisconsin’s bubble position in recent weeks. We noted that while Wisconsin derives a benefit from the Big Ten being very deep — meaning that most wins in the conference are quality wins — the Badgers also don’t want every Big Ten team near the bubble to get in. If Minnesota and Purdue don’t get in, that’s two fewer teams UW has to worry about as competitors. If, to lay out the hypothetical, Wisconsin does stumble in February and the month doesn’t go as well as planned, it will be valuable if Minnesota and Purdue aren’t in the NCAA picture.
Wisconsin can severely cripple an opponent’s NCAA Tournament case. Sometimes, that can matter more than a team’s own profile. Wisconsin can improve its resume, yes, but the bigger benefit on Wednesday is to shove the Gophers to a less important mid-March postseason tournament.