Why Josh Rosen’s future with the Buccaneers could be very bright

Josh Rosen in on his third team in as many years. Will this finally be a long-term home for the former first-round pick?

For the first time in his NFL career, Josh Rosen experienced something this weekend.

Agency.

After being traded by the Arizona Cardinals and then later released by the Miami Dolphins, Rosen finally had a chance this weekend to pick his own future. According to reports, there were a handful of teams interested in his services, but Rosen decided to sign with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, rejoining offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich, who he worked with in Arizona and will likely listen to.

Rosen now joins a quarterback room that has Bruce Arians (the “quarterback guru” himself), Tom Brady and Leftwich. He also slides behind backup Blaine Gabbert, a former first-round pick who never quite lived up to that billing. While this might be an ideal landing spot for Rosen to salvage his career – and avoid a fate similar to Gabbert’s – the question remains: Is that possible?

To unpack that question, it might make sense to revisit Rosen the prospect. This requires a bit of a confession: Rosen was my top quarterback in the 2018 draft cycle. For me, Rosen checked a number of boxes. He seemed the “pro ready” passer in the bunch, whose mastery of offensive concepts would give him a mental edge, even though players such as Lamar Jackson and even Josh Allen had an athletic edge on him.

Of course, we learned over Rosen’s time in the league that he needed to learn to do things like identify the MIKE linebacker, among other basic tenets of playing the position. This is a good time to highlight that those of us in the draft evaluation world have access to approximately 2% of the data available to NFL teams, and since even teams get the quarterback position wrong…yeah.

But during his time at UCLA, Rosen did flash some of the traits you want to see at the position. If you want to see more on Rosen the prospect, here is an 18-minute film breakdown I did of him prior to the 2018 draft that highlights what he did well:

Of course, things were spotty during his time in Arizona. At least, in part. There were still flashes of Rosen and what he could be.

Take, for example, his first touchdown pass to Chad Williams (#10): 

This is a maximum protection, two-receiver concept with both Larry Fitzgerald and Williams running crossing routes. Fitzgerald comes underneath while Williams goes over the top. The primary receiver on this play is Fitzgerald, and the offense is hoping that play-action in the backfield draws the linebackers down toward the line of scrimmage, freeing up the intermediate route to Fitzgerald.

Two of the linebackers, Barkevious Mingo and Bobby Wagner serve as the proverbial flies in the ointment on this scoring play. While they both crash down initially, each makes a quick retreat into his underneath zone, taking away the throwing lane on the dig route to Fitzgerald. Rosen then looks to the other option, Williams, as he crosses into the red zone. But now the QB needs to worry about free safety Earl Thomas in the middle of the field, so he puts this throw to the outside and away from the safety. Not only is the processing speed great here from Rosen, but the movement in the pocket is as well.

This is the post-snap processing speed that made Rosen an enticing prospect in my mind, and here it is early in his NFL career.

You could make the case that Rosen’s best throw of his rookie year came in in this game. During the start to his NFL career the young quarterback seemed to be developing a great relationship with tight end Ricky Seals-Jones. Watch the connection between those two on this out pattern toward the left sideline:

This is a prime example of “NFL open.” Seals-Jones has a step on Wagner, and while the linebacker is in good position this is a throw that quarterbacks need to make to not only extend drives, but extend their careers. When watching it on the broadcast replay angle, the throw is even more impressive:

This is a perfect throw from Rosen and as Mark Schlereth points out in the booth, “you can’t throw it better than that.” The pass is delivered with enough touch to get it over Wagner, but with enough velocity to arrive before the safety can make a break on Seals-Jones. A truly impressive pass.

Rosen’s mental makeup was a big reason I was so high on him coming out of UCLA. The ability to move defenders with your eyes is essential to playing the quarterback position…and playing it well. During his rookie season in a Week 11 game against the Oakland Raiders he threw a bad interception on Arizona’s first possession. He came back and led a scoring drive on their ensuing possession, one he capped off with this beautiful touchdown strike to Fitzgerald:

Now, Rosen’s time in Arizona certainly had some errors, and the fact that he ended up traded to the Dolphins supports that position. Failures down stretch might be a big contributor to his current status. After what some termed a “historic” victory for the Cardinals in Week 13 at Lambeau Field, Arizona and their rookie quarterback hit more than a few speed bumps. Rosen struggled in Week 14 against the Detroit Lions, completing 26 of 41 passes for 240 yards and an interception. He threw two interceptions in a Week 15 loss against the Atlanta Falcons, and he was pulled at the end of that game, as well as at the end of a Week 16 outing against the Los Angeles Chargers. In the season finale against the Seahawks, Rosen was sacked six times, losing the football on two such occasions. He also took a perplexing sack near the end of the first half, when the Cardinals were out of timeouts (although he was pressured quickly on the play). In short, down the stretch Rosen really struggled.

And things did not get better with a move to Miami.

But in that Green Bay game his rookie season, we saw flashes of what he can do in the league. Back in Week 13 the Packers were 4-6-1, fighting for their playoff lives and wondering about the fate of head coach Mike McCarthy. But Rosen in that game, against Aaron Rodgers and the elements, was impressive, particularly on third down situations. In the first quarter he worked a full-field read on a Sticks concept to move the chains on this 3rd and 9 situation:

Later in the first half Rosen again converts a third and long, showing brilliant mental processing:

On this play the Packers disguise their coverage well, but right as the play begins they rotate into a Tampa 2 coverage, with the “middle of the field open.” Rosen knows exactly what to do with the football, snapping his eyes to the middle of the field and finding Fitzgerald in front of the retreating linebacker to move the chains.

Finally, late in the fourth quarter the Cardinals faced a 3rd and 23 deep in their own territory, with just over four minutes remaining in a tied game. Rosen was forced out of the pocket and he shows an ability to create here in a scramble drill situations, finding Fitzgerald deep near the right sideline to again convert a huge third and long:

This was probably my favorite throw of him from that rookie season.

Of course, none of this was good enough to convince Arizona that he was the answer. Then nothing the Dolphins saw last season convinced Miami that Rosen was the pick there. Whether it was throws like this in preseason:

Or plays like this when the games began to count:

So the question remains: Is he salvageable? In a word: Maybe? Maybe Arians and Leftwich have something to work with, given the flashes Rosen showed during his time in Arizona. Maybe exposure to Brady and yes, even Gabbert, will help the young quarterback recapture some of what made him a first-round pick. Arians is known for being more of a downfield offensive mind, but some of his layered passing concepts, particularly three-level vertical stretches, are a solid fit for Rosen, and designs that he has run before:

This design is a three-level stretch in the middle of the field with a post route, a dig route and a shallow route. It is sometimes called the NCAA concept or NCAA Mills, as the original Mills concept (a Steve Spurrier design named after Ernie Mills, a wide receiver under Spurrier at the University of Florida) contained just the post and the dig routes. On this design, the post and the dig route work to high-low the free safety, while the dig route and the shallow cross do the same to the linebackers. It gives the quarterback a variety of options and ways to exploit the defense, including for kickers a wheel route from the F receiver.

This is a fairly basic route concept, but something that Arians certainly has in his playbook.

There is another reason why this could work: The lack of expectations. In Arizona Rosen was supposed to be the answer. In Miami, he was supposed to be the guy who would make it possible for the Dolphins to pass on Tua Tagovailoa. Now in Tampa Bay, the only expectations in front of him are to listen, learn and absorb. Tom Brady is the guy right now, and if he goes down, the team will look to Gabbert. For the first time in a while, Rosen has both agency, and the absence of pressure.

The first got him a job in Tampa Bay. The second might let him keep it.