After reviewing the returning production for each team in FBS, we have the metrics from Bill Connolly. His SP+ metric gives us a pretty good idea as to how the analytics see it all playing out. At least in theory, but this is more of a guide than the gospel truth.
According to the initial SP+ metrics (subscription required), the SEC is well represented in the top 50. On Missouri and Vanderbilt were among the schools outside of the top 50, which shows the level of strength in the conference.
Auburn specifically landed in the top 25. The Tigers’ defensive metric shows they have a top 15 unit despite the losses of Roger McCreary, Smoke Monday, and Jakoby McClain, who are all headed to the NFL Combine in March.
The offense needs a bit of work to catch up, but hopefully, the new faces can inject some juice into the unit led by running back Tank Bigsby, who is looking for a bounceback season.
The SP+ metic explained:
Returning Production
The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year’s SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production make up more than two-thirds of the projections formula.
Recent Recruiting
This piece informs us of the caliber of a team’s potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the last few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). Beginning in 2022, this category also is impacted a bit by the recruiting rankings of incoming transfers. This is a new thing, and I’m not giving it much weight right away, but it will have a slight impact. This piece makes up about one-fifth of the projections formula.
Recent History:
Using a sliver of information from previous seasons (two to four years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right? This is a minor piece of the puzzle, but the projections are better with it than without.
This is how the entire SEC shakes out: