Tag: SP+ Metrics

One metric ranks the Auburn defense among the top 12 in FBS

Just how good does the Auburn defense look when it comes to the metrics?

On Monday Bill Connelly of ESPN released his updated SP+ metrics. This piece of analytics measures a team based on three categories.

  • Returning Production
  • Recent Recruiting
  • Recent History

Offense: 31.7 (No. 40)

The offense is in the top 50 but it still leaves a lot to be desired. The unit did lose a lot with Kobe Hudson and Bo Nix leaving. These two veterans left a void for less experienced players to try and fill.

Still, the offense has their top running back in Tank Bigsby and backup Jarquez Hunter, who will look to be the featured players on offense. The success in 2022 will depend on who wins the quarterback job and a few wide receivers stepping up to the plate.

Defense: 17.7 (No. 11)

The strength of this team comes from the defensive side of the ball, at least that is how the metrics see it. The Tigers’ defense led by new coordinator Jeff Schmedding cracks the top 12 in the country based on Connelly’s metric.

The team returns the one-two punch at pass rusher with Derick Hall and Colby Wooden. Not to mention Owen Pappoe at the second level. On the backend, Nehemiah Pritchett and Zion Puckett look to hold it down along with a few newcomers.

Overall: 14.0 (No. 22)

Todd Van Emst/AU Athletics

Auburn still finished among the top 25 in overall SP+ as they land just ahead of SEC foe, the Florida Gators. It would seem that the data is higher on the team heading into the 2022 college football season than the analysts are.

With a lot of pressure already on the team and head coach going into the season, the road isn’t going to be easy. Especially with one of the toughest schedules in the country.

We will soon find out if a diamond can be formed from the pressure or will it all crumble under Harsin.

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Where SEC teams land in initial 2022 SP+ metrics

What the computers think about Auburn and the rest of the SEC heading into 2022:

After reviewing the returning production for each team in FBS, we have the metrics from Bill Connolly. His SP+ metric gives us a pretty good idea as to how the analytics see it all playing out. At least in theory, but this is more of a guide than the gospel truth.

According to the initial SP+ metrics (subscription required), the SEC is well represented in the top 50. On Missouri and Vanderbilt were among the schools outside of the top 50, which shows the level of strength in the conference.

Auburn specifically landed in the top 25. The Tigers’ defensive metric shows they have a top 15 unit despite the losses of Roger McCreary, Smoke Monday, and Jakoby McClain, who are all headed to the NFL Combine in March.

The offense needs a bit of work to catch up, but hopefully, the new faces can inject some juice into the unit led by running back Tank Bigsby, who is looking for a bounceback season.

The SP+ metic explained:

Returning Production

The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year’s SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production make up more than two-thirds of the projections formula.

Recent Recruiting

This piece informs us of the caliber of a team’s potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the last few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). Beginning in 2022, this category also is impacted a bit by the recruiting rankings of incoming transfers. This is a new thing, and I’m not giving it much weight right away, but it will have a slight impact. This piece makes up about one-fifth of the projections formula.

Recent History:

Using a sliver of information from previous seasons (two to four years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right? This is a minor piece of the puzzle, but the projections are better with it than without.

This is how the entire SEC shakes out: