Oklahoma rode one of its strongest defensive performance of the season to a 28-21 win in the Sooners’ home finale over Iowa State.
Defensively, OU recorded seven sacks, 11 tackles for loss and forced three Iowa State turnovers. Redshirt sophomore defensive lineman Jalen Redmond returned Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy’s fumble just before halftime 42 yards for Oklahoma’s first defensive touchdown of the season.
It sets up a Bedlam showdown for the ages. OU and Oklahoma State each enter ranked inside the top 10 in both the Associated Press Top 25 and USA TODAY Sports AFCA Coaches Poll.
The winner in Stillwater would go a long way toward securing a potential College Football Playoff berth. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis for polling and predicting results.
It’s become a popular tool by ESPN and other media entities to prognosticate who the future College Football Playoff participants will be, what bowl game matchups might look like and which teams will win on a given week.
Last week, FiveThirtyEight gave the Sooners a 17 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff. Let’s take a look at how FiveThirtyEight views Oklahoma’s chances following the Sooners’ 28-21 victory versus Iowa State.
According to FiveThirtyEight, the Sooners’ chances to make the College Football Playoff improved by 6 percent after beating the Cyclones. Overall, Oklahoma has the seventh-best odds to reach the College Football Playoff.
Georgia has the overwhelming best odds to reach the playoff at 82 percent. Next is Alabama with 59 percent chances.
The big news this week was Cincinnati’s jump. The Bearcats saw an 18 percent improvement in its chances to make the College Football Playoff. Cincinnati beat SMU 48-14 and now possesses the third-best odds to get into the CFP with a 52 percent chance.
After that, it’s Ohio State with a 49 percent chance, Oklahoma State at 43 percent, Michigan at 31 percent and then Oklahoma.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Oregon saw the biggest drop in its chances to make the College Football Playoff after losing to Utah, 38-7. The Ducks’ percentage chances to make the CFP fell from 41 percent last week to just 18 percent this week.
With a win in Bedlam on Saturday, Oklahoma would likely sit with no worse than the fifth-best odds next week. If that unfolds, the Sooners would knock Oklahoma State out of the picture and leapfrog the loser of the Ohio State-Michigan game.
And, if Oklahoma can beat Oklahoma State twice, it looks like the Sooners would be in great shape to make the College Football Playoff.
Using the FiveThirtyEight predictor, Oklahoma’s chances to make the College Football Playoff would be at 81 percent to get into the CFP under the scenario where Oklahoma, Georgia, Cincinnati, Ohio State and Notre Dame all win out.
If all of those same teams win out but Alabama beats Georgia, FiveThirtyEight still has the Sooners with a 77 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff.
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