The Atlanta Falcons invested quite a lot in former Florida tight end Kyle Pitts when they selected him with the fourth overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft. That made him the highest-drafted tight end in the common era (dating to 1967), and naturally, he’s expected to make a major impact in Year 1 — especially with Julio Jones likely on his way out.
So how much production is it fair to expect from Pitts? In ESPN’s statistical predictions for the top rookies, he (unsurprisingly) projects to be among the best of them.
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In terms of receiving yards, Pitts is projected to finish with 780, fourth-most among rookies and behind just the three top receivers taken in Ja’Marr Chase, Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle. That number would have ranked him third among NFL tight ends in 2020.
Pitts’ projection would place him fifth all-time for a rookie tight end and give him the most receiving yards by a first-year player at the position since Evan Engram’s 722 yards in 2017. And while Bateman’s upside is limited by Baltimore‘s run-heavy scheme, he has a path to an every-down role opposite Marquise Brown.
Pitts had 770 yards in just eight games in 2020, an impressive figure by itself. But what’s even more impressive is how often he found the end zone: 12 times in total for an average of 1.5 per game. He should be a top target in the red zone for Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan just as he was for Kyle Trask, and that should result in a lot of scores for Pitts.
He’s projected to finish with six touchdowns from scrimmage in 2021, third among rookies behind Pittsburgh running back Najee Harris and the Bengals‘ Chase.
Six scores for Pitts may seem a pinch low, but that would tie for fourth among rookie tight ends since 2010, with Rob Gronkowski (10) the only one above eight.
If these numbers hold true for Pitts, he’d be among the league’s best tight ends as a rookie. Though that’s quite a lofty expectation, he has all the physical tools to be a superstar in the league.
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