The Bills’ offense still has to prove itself against good defenses
The Buffalo offense has made huge strides over the course of the 2019 season. It took the Bills a while, but they finally got the offense really humming for the first time all season during their three-game November win streak. In the three wins against Miami, Denver, and Dallas, Buffalo scored 83 points and averaged 401 yards per game. This step forward was due in part to a change in philosophy that saw the Bills use more of a faster tempo with a no-huddle, as well as rely almost entirely on 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end).
Quarterback Josh Allen also appeared to take a huge step forward himself, throwing six touchdowns over the three games and adding two more himself on the ground, while also tossing just one interception.
While the offense picked up its game considerably, the truth of the matter was still that those performances did come against teams with a combined record of 14-25 and ranked no higher than 10th in total defense.
If the Bills want to be a team to be taken seriously in the postseason, they need to show some evidence of success against some of the league’s better defenses. For Buffalo to go on a playoff run, they will likely have to find a way to beat a team like Baltimore or New England that features a stout defense. What the Bills haven’t done this season, despite the 9-4 record, is have a really impressive offensive performance against a really good defense.
Sunday’s game was a chance for the Bills’ offense to prove its worth against the NFL’s seventh ranked offense in total yards. But Baltimore got the better of Buffalo when the Bills’ offense was on the field, at least up until the fourth quarter. The Buffalo offense really struggled in the first half, generating just seven first downs and punting four times while scoring only six points on two Stephen Hauschka field goals. Allen started the game completing just 1 of 7 passes for only 10 yards. He missed on a couple of open shots down the field in the early going of the game. He also lost a fumble when he was sacked from behind by Matt Judon late in the first quarter.
In the third quarter, the Bills scored three points while also going three-and-out three straight times. The Bills punted seven times total in the game, their most punts in a game this season. The Ravens also sacked Allen six times in the game.
You wouldn’t know at all about Allen’s ability as a runner if you watched this game because he had just two rushes for nine yards. The designed runs Allen has thrived on all season just weren’t there on Sunday. He also banged up his ankle a bit late in the first half, which might have hampered his running ability.
While the offense found better footing in desperate times down two scores in the fourth quarter, Allen and company really weren’t able to generate much of anything for the first 75 percent of the game. It really felt like just getting a first down was going to be a challenge.
The Bills won’t see that relentless Ravens defense again (unless they meet in the postseason), but they still have Pittsburgh and New England coming up next on the schedule. The Steelers and Patriots are ranked sixth and first respectively in total defense this season. We’ve already seen what New England is capable of doing to this Buffalo offense back in Week 4, when they held the Bills to 10 points and forced four turnovers. Buffalo will also get a tough test from Pittsburgh, who has forced 33 turnovers (first in the league) and has tallied 48 sacks (also first in the league).
If the Bills want to advance in the postseason, they will have to find a way to solve a tough defense. Some of the better defenses in the league will be in Buffalo’s way in the AFC playoffs. The Bills need to show they can move the ball and score on these high-end defenses, or else the Bills’ postseason victory drought will likely continue.