When the Seattle Seahawks traded Russell Wilson in the spring of 2022, it looked like the organization was throwing in the towel on the present and starting a franchise-shifting rebuild. As many teams have done, the conventional opinion suggested Seattle was going to finish dead last in the NFC West and leverage multiple picks to get in the annual quarterback draft sweepstakes.
The sentiment was largely based on the team making no effort in signing another quarterback after acquiring Drew Lock in the Wilson deal. Pete Carroll seemed content with Geno Smith, a player who lasted only two years as a starter with the New York Jets a decade ago – throwing 34 interceptions in 29 starts – and had only started five games in the ensuing six years.
Not only did the Seahawks not tank in the post-Wilson era, they posted a 6-3 start and, while they struggled down the stretch, made the playoffs with a 9-8 record. Smith led the league in completion percentage (69.8) and successfully delivered 399 of 572 passes for 4,282 yards with 30 touchdowns, while rushing 68 times for 366 yards and another TD.
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In most league scoring methods, Smith finished fifth in fantasy points for a quarterback – behind only Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow. That’s pretty big company he’s keeping there.
The question being asked this year is whether or not 2022 was a fluke?
Down the stretch when those needing fantasy help at QB chose him, Smith reverted back to old habits. In the seven weeks leading up to the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15-17 in most leagues), Smith tossed 16 touchdown passes and threw for 264 or more yards in five straight. In the final four games of the season, his passing yardage totals were meager (238-215-183-213), and he threw just five touchdown passes.
Smith proved a lot last season – the stat to focus on is the completion percentage. After six years of NFL irrelevance, Smith posted the kind of consistent fantasy numbers that you look for in a starter, much less a waiver wire pickup. The season didn’t end nearly as strong, but Seattle signed Smith to a three-year deal in the offseason worth up to $105 million, so, for 2023 at least, he isn’t going anywhere.
Fantasy football outlook
Smith has elite, time-hardened weapons in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The quarterback’s run in November and early December was impressive, but the question you need to ask is whether you’re willing to put your season on the line this December with Smith as the guy?
Most rankings and ADP have him right in the middle of the pack – the 14-17 range. The quarterbacks in his immediate vicinity include Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray. Two of them are Super Bowl champions and Hall of Famers. The other is only ranked this low because of an injury that will likely sideline him to start the season.
Take any of those players ahead of Smith. He’s 11 years in the league with three years as a full-time starter. If I’m looking for a QB2 on my roster, I want somebody that has a history of huge games as a QB1.
Even after an impressive 2022 season, do not go all-in on Smith being that guy as opposed to other available quarterbacks to fill the roster spot. He’s definitely not a starter but isn’t necessarily an unreasonable backup to a top-flight QB1.