Sugar Bowl
The Big 12 bid to the Sugar Bowl is simple. If the winner of Oklahoma vs Baylor is in the Playoff, then the loser goes to the Sugar Bowl. If the winner does not make the Playoff, then the winner gets the Sugar Bowl.
On the SEC side, things are also pretty simple. Since Alabama fell behind Florida, there’s no drama for the SEC pecking order. If LSU and Georgia both reach the Playoff, then Florida goes to the Sugar Bowl. If LSU wins this weekend, then Georgia will get its second consecutive Sugar Bowl bid.
Orange Bowl
Virginia is basically locked into the Orange Bowl for the ACC. If Clemson wins this weekend, then the only viable option for the Orange Bowl is Virginia. And if Virginia wins, it gets the automatic berth to the Orange Bowl.
The opponent, on the other hand, seems pretty clear too. It has to be the highest-ranked SEC or Big Ten team after the CFP, Rose, and Sugar Bowls are filled. Assuming only one SEC team reaches the Playoff, that highest-ranked team will be Florida. If two reach the Playoff, that team will be Penn State (since Florida would be in the Sugar Bowl).
Cotton Bowl
The Group of 5 spot is a little iffy, for now. Memphis is obviously in if it can beat Cincinnati again. If the Bearcats win, though, I still think that Cincinnati will have the far superior resume to Boise State. The Bearcats are only one spot behind the Broncos, and a road win over Memphis will do far more for the resume than a home win over Hawaii would. Appalachian State, which is one spot behind Cincinnati at No. 21, seems to have no real path into the Cotton Bowl.
As to the final at-large team, it seems like that would be either Penn State (if not already taken) or the loser of the Big 12 Championship Game. Depending on how far that loser drops, it could be locked into the Cotton Bowl. If a Big 12 team is in the Playoff, then Penn State is all-but guaranteed to get the Cotton Bowl bid. (The one exception is if Clemson loses to Virginia and misses out on the Playoff. In that case, Clemson will certainly be the highest at-large team and get the Cotton Bowl bid.)
Other notes
The committee is still giving Appalachian State some unearned benefit of the doubt. Yes, the Mountaineers have beaten two Power 5 teams. But neither of those two are particularly good Power 5 teams, and Appalachian State has a very weak overall resume. Additionally, it has a far worse loss than any of Virginia’s, Navy’s, or Oklahoma State’s. This seems to be a clear example of “name brand” being very beneficial for a Group of 5 team. Boise State gets it consistently. UCF clearly got it last year. Now, at least, it seems that Appalachian State has earned some name value among Group of 5 teams.
Lastly, Oklahoma State not falling out of the rankings tells us two things. First of all, the teams stuck outside the Top 25 aren’t particularly close to jumping in the rankings. Second, it’s just another indicator that the committee isn’t punishing teams for losing to better teams. That will be important to remember, especially as we head on to conference championship weekend.