When Christian McCaffrey went down with an injury in 2020, the Panthers carried on behind an unheralded backup running back. Mike Davis kept Carolina operating at reasonable levels in a rebuilding season, saving scores of fantasy rosters along the way. Davis wasn’t much more than a replacement value back, but Matt Rhule’s usage pushed him to an average of more than 15 fantasy points per game in McCaffrey’s absence.
Now it’s Chuba Hubbard’s turn.
Hubbard is the next man up following the hamstring strain that knocked McCaffrey out of a Week 3 game against the Texans and threatens to keep him from the field for three weeks or more. He’s already outplayed veteran Royce Freeman for the top spot and is quite possibly the hottest name to hit your local fantasy waiver wire to date.
Can we expect him to have a Mike Davis impact in relief? Early signs suggest yes … at least on the ground.
In the running game
McCaffrey may lack the usage of his RB1 peers when it comes to handoffs, but he’s still an integral piece of the Carolina offense thanks to his ability to gash defenses and free up space for the passing game. His 62 rushing yards per game are more than similar dual-threat tailbacks like Alvin Kamara and Austin Ekeler since 2017.
But while McCaffrey has proven capable of running for nearly 1,400 yards in a season, advanced stats paint him as fairly average when adjusted for blocking and scheme. In his All-Pro 2019, he averaged only 1.8 yards after contact (37th-best among 47 qualified runners) and had a broken tackle rate that was only slightly better (34th). 2020 proved his success could transfer to another veteran runner, even if he lacked the hype of a former top 10 draft pick.
In three games that fall, McCaffrey averaged 2.2 yards after contact. Davis was, by this metric, a more efficient runner; his 2.4 yards after contact was good enough for 14th-best among all qualified tailbacks. In all, Davis — despite more than a couple clunkers — averaged 3.9 yards per carry to McCaffrey’s 3.8.
Let’s jump to 2021. In another limited sample size this year, McCaffrey remained stuck at a good, not great 2.2. Hubbard’s YAC after taking over Thursday in Houston? 2.5.
Of course, there are caveats. This happened against the Texans, who are fully rebuilding and currently rank 31st in defensive DVOA against the run. Over the first three quarters of the game he had just six rush yards on five carries before gashing a gassing Houston defense.
Hubbard was also fairly disconcerting in limited action before Week 3. He didn’t take a single handoff in his NFL debut, then needed eight carries to run for all of 10 yards in Week 2 against the Saints’ stout run defense.
However, his Saints’ game tape is littered with examples of defenders getting to the backfield and wiping him out despite making the correct reads. Hubbard didn’t get ruined by New Orleans because he was indecisive or slow, he got beat because he often had to make someone miss at or behind the line of scrimmage. The defense knew the Panthers would be grinding out the clock, and it shows.
Davis had warts of his own before establishing himself as a viable starting RB. He’d averaged better than 3.5 yards per carry in only one of the five seasons he’d played before his 2020 breakout. Hubbard doesn’t have that kind of experience, but it’s worth noting he was a more explosive college back than his predecessor. He averaged 5.9 yards per carry at Oklahoma State while Davis ran for 5.4 at South Carolina. It’s not unreasonable to expect Hubbard can make a similar improvement as a starter rather than a mop-up act.
Through the air
Here’s where McCaffrey’s impact is most profound. He’s one of only three running backs in league history to run and catch for 1,000 yards in the same season. He set the record for most catches by a tailback in 2018, then broke it in 2019 by hauling in 116 passes.
Davis was never going to average seven-plus catches per game, but was able to replicate a decent chunk of that production before defenses caught on. He had 22 receptions on 25 targets and a pair of receiving touchdowns in his first three games as the team’s starter last fall. He had only 37 targets, 29 catches, and zero scores in the 10 that followed.
This is where Hubbard may struggle to replicate Davis’s success. The veteran was an accomplished pass catcher in college (70 catches in 31 games) who’d had multiple Sundays with six receptions or more as a pro. Hubbard averaged just 1.6 catches per game in Stillwater. His 62.5 percent catch rate as a pro ranks 42nd among 45 qualified running backs in the NFL.
But Hubbard also gets to play alongside Sam Darnold, who despite throwing the ball, on average, further downfield than Teddy Bridgewater (7.6 yards to 7.1), has checked down to his running backs more often than his predecessor (25.5 percent to 21.6). Time will tell if that holds up in games that aren’t abject disasters for their opponents.
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The warning attached to Davis’s 2020 rise was that it wasn’t sustainable. After averaging 117 total yards, seven catches, and one touchdown per game in his first three starts, those numbers fell to 59 total yards, three catches, and half a TD in the 10 games that followed. Davis was a solid change of pace, but not a revelation.
Hubbard may be stuck in the same boat, especially given his early struggles against the Saints and in the first three quarters of last Thursday’s game. He’s also capable of bringing a new dimension to the Panthers’ offense thanks to his vision and breakaway speed in traffic. And if McCaffrey’s injury only lasts a couple weeks, he might not have enough time for opposing defenses to figure him out the way they did Davis.
With that in mind, Hubbard is certainly worth a big chunk of your free agent budget. Just be wary of his PPR production and know a day where he doesn’t get at least 15 carries could be a problem. Hubbard is here for a good time in 2021, not a long time.
At least that’s what the Panthers hope.
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