What can the Indianapolis Colts expect from new starting QB Sam Ehlinger?

The Indianapolis Colts have replaced veteran quarterback Matt Ryan with second-year man Sam Ehlinger. Here’s how the move might work.

After Matt Ryan’s performance in the Indianapolis Colts’ 19-10 loss to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, in which Ryan completed 33 of 44 passes for 243 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, three sacks, and a passer rating of 76.2, head coach Frank Reich, general manager Chris Ballard, and team owner Jim Irsay had apparently had their fill of the veteran quarterback. Adding in the fact that Ryan is now suffering from a Grade 2 shoulder sprain, the decision was made to bench Ryan for the rest of the 2022 season, and start second-year sixth-round pick Sam Ehlinger in his place.

It’s a radical move for a veteran quarterback, especially factoring in that the Colts traded for Ryan from the Atlanta Falcons in March. Whether he plays in 2023 or not, the remainder of Ryan’s contract has him with a total 2022 cap hit of $18,705,882, and a total 2023 cap hit of $35,205,882. The Colts can mess with Ryan’s contract next season — there’s a $10 million roster bonus if he is on the roster at the start of the new league year, but there’s also an $18 million dead cap number next year. 

Safe to say this did not work out for anybody involved. The Colts were hoping to find their franchise quarterback after a post-Andrew Luck journey that kept coming up short. From Jacoby Brissett to Philip Rivers to Carson Wentz to Ryan, Reich can’t seem to find the right guy — and both Wentz and Ryan were his hand-picked candidates.

So, now, there is Ehlinger. After he was selected in the 219th overall pick in the sixth round of the 2021 draft, Ehlinger had a horrid first preseason — he completed 21 of 31 passes for 288 yards, no touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 57.7. Ehlinger didn’t throw a pass in the 2021 regular season, though he did have three rushing attempts for a total of nine yards.

In the 2022 preseason, Ehlinger was an entirely different quarterback. This time around, he completed 24 of 29 passes for 289 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 147.8 — the highest passer rating for any quarterback in the preseason, regardless of tenure.

The Colts are pulling Ryan from a complete disaster of a half-season in which he completed 203 of 297 passes for 2,011 yards, nine touchdowns, nine interceptions, 24 sacks (which ties him with Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals for the NFL lead), and a passer rating of 84.7, which ranks 22nd in the league. The tape has looked even worse than the stats, as Indianapolis’ offense has not enjoyed consistent performance from any sector. The offensive line, receivers, run game, and quarterback have all been sub-par.

So, the question is, how can Sam Ehlinger make it any better?