Through three weeks, my prop bet picks are hitting at a nearly 74 percent rate. My unofficial leans are batting 1.000.
I do not write this to brag. I write this to warn you about the impending regression.
The tasty, early-season prop lines where no one really knew much about usage and target rates are over. Instead of extrapolating from 2021 and preseason results, we’ve got actual, very real data to run with. That means lines are going to get a lot tougher. Value is no longer going to stick out like a Christian Kirk 52.5 receiving yards total.
So this astronomical batting average isn’t an indicator of future success. It’s a buffer zone for the lean weeks yet to come. A parachute to be deployed when the drop eventually happens.
Fortunately, there are still a few lines that suggest that might not be this week.
- Josh Allen OVER 281.5 passing yards. The Ravens’ leaky secondary has given up 297-plus yards every game this fall — including to quarterbacks like Joe Flacco and Mac Jones. Allen threw for 297 in a 21-point win over the Rams and 317 in a 34-point win over the Titans. Even if this game is a blowout he’s liable to keep slinging it.
- Stefon Diggs OVER 79.5 receiving yards. It’s a grim scene for the Ravens’ usually intimidating passing defense right now.
- Geno Smith UNDER 254.5 passing yards. This feels like an overreaction to last week’s 325-yard explosion against the Falcons — which was also Smith’s first game with more than 210 yards through the air as a Seahawk (six starts). The Lions have gotten big returns from rising cornerback Jeff Okudah — see Ben Solak’s delightful breakdown over at The Ringer for details — and Smith will likely see a combination of blitzes in a way Atlanta didn’t in Week 3.
- Jacoby Brissett OVER 209.5 passing yards. Again, Geno threw for 325 against the Falcons, who the Browns face in Week 4. Brissett has hit 220-plus in each of his last two games and is looking more and more comfortable with his role in Cleveland.
- James Robinson OVER 50.5 rushing yards. Philadelphia ranks 26th in rushing defense DVOA. Robinson has run for 60-plus every game this season. We’re gonna ride these Robinson props until the wheels fall off because he’s one of the most exciting running backs in the game.
- Breece Hall OVER 54.5 total yards. Hall’s snap share rose over 50 percent for the first time in his career last week. While that was in an uncompetitive loss to the Bengals, he still racked up 92 total yards. That seems likely to set him up for more opportunities in Week 4 against a Steeler defense that’s good, but not great. If you’re feeling frisky, you can also couch this with his OVER 16.5 receiving yards total, though Zach Wilson’s impending arrival on the offense could be a problem.
- Terry McLaurin OVER 53.5 receiving yards. Dallas has a strong secondary, but McLaurin has gotten better each game this season (and hit at least 58 receiving yards in each). Carson Wentz is doing a passable Blake Bortles impression by putting up big yardage numbers after the game has already been decided. This prop may look grim for three quarters before exploding in the fourth as the Commanders rally to a 24-14 loss.
Last week: 7-3 (.700)
Season to date: 17-6 (.739)