Week 15 CFP Bubble Watch: Resume vs metrics

The choice for the final College Football Playoff team could come down to whether the committee values quality wins or how you play more.

On the Bubble:

These teams will be shown in where they sit on the bubble. That fact is determined by the strength of the resume if the team in question wins out, not by where it is currently.

Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range Wins over 

+.500

Off YPP

(rank)

Def YPP

(rank)

Oklahoma 1-0 1-0 2-1 3-0 4-0 20-75 4 8.0 (1) 5.1 (35)

The SOS numbers are dragged down by Colley’s pure wins-and-losses numbers, but the overall resume is strong. Two ranked wins and five Top 40 wins, with the chance at another upcoming That’s better than what Utah is bringing to the table. Right now, Oklahoma is held back by barely beating teams. We’ll see if that lasts, though. The committee finally stopped holding it against Baylor last week.

Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range Wins over 

+.500

Off YPP

(rank)

Def YPP

(rank)

Utah 0-0 0-1 1-0 7-0 3-0 40-80 4 6.6 (13) 4.2 (4)

This is one of the weakest overall SOS profiles in the Pac 12. Utah is winning games convincingly, and the metrics reflect that, but I’m looking at this resume and think that Utah has to be in big trouble when compared with Oklahoma. Other than winning by more points, what on here tells us that this resume is anywhere close to Oklahoma’s? Or Baylor’s?

Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range Wins over 

+.500

Off YPP

(rank)

Def YPP

(rank)

Baylor 0-1 1-0 3-0 2-0 5-0 40-85 4 6.3 (20) 4.6 (11)

The fact that Baylor has played four Top 40 teams makes this seem like a decent resume. But those SOS numbers are just ugly. Baylor sits over 20 spots behind Oklahoma in almost every SOS metric, and it’s not like the Sooners played a good nonconference slate either. The very fact that Baylor can play five Top 40 teams and still barely crack the Top 40 in any SOS metric tells us just how awful the cupcakes that Baylor has played are. On pure resume, this looks like a decent one-loss picture. But the Bears are being punished for an awful nonconference schedule, and it’s hard to blame the committee for it.

Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range Wins over 

+.500

Off YPP

(rank)

Def YPP

(rank)

Wisconsin 0-1 3-0 0-0 3-1 4-0 10-40 4 6.4 (16) 4.5 (8)

Wisconsin added a win over Minnesota, but the win over Michigan fell out of the Top 10 range. A win over Ohio State would make this a pretty good profile. Is it enough to jump Clemson if the Tigers lose to Virginia? That’s the question. The answer isn’t likely yes, but it’s not a definite no at this point.

Next… Boise State vs Cincinnati