Alabama’s status
The Crimson Tide are in the same boat as last week. Alabama needs help to make the Playoff. It got a little from Oklahoma, though a 12-1 Oklahoma team still will likely jump Alabama when all is said and done.
Minnesota’s loss definitely helped the Crimson Tide, as well. The Big Ten still has some paths to getting two teams in the Playoff, but they’re not particularly likely ones. Alabama will be rooting heavily for Ohio State to beat Penn State next weekend. Other than Penn State winning out, though, Alabama is in decent shape.
Of course, Alabama still needs help from elsewhere. The Pac 12’s gains, as discussed above, come at Alabama’s detriment. A Clemson loss would still help. And Georgia entering the SEC Championship Game at 11-1 would make Alabama very nervous.
Also, the Crimson Tide just lost its best excuse to overlook the loss to LSU. Before, Alabama could have basically told the committee that they’re a better team in the Playoff than the LSU game showed, because Tua Tagovailoa would be healthy for the postseason. With the star quarterback officially done for the year, this entire line of argument is irrelevant. Alabama will be evaluated based on resume and results on the field, and nothing more.
Group of 5 race
The AAC has had a vice grip on the Group of 5 Cotton Bowl bid for a month now, but it’s slowly loosening. Cincinnati’s consistent near-losses mean that other teams might catch up to the Bearcats. Also, with Navy’s loss to Notre Dame and SMU not impressing, these teams have started to slide in the committee’s eyes.
The worst-case scenario for the AAC would be Memphis beating Cincinnati in the regular-season finale, but the Bearcats getting revenge in the AAC Championship Game. Cincinnati has been unimpressive enough that the committee might no longer take a two-loss Cincinnati over a one-loss Boise State or Appalachian State. Similarly, if Cincinnati beats Memphis in the regular season, we could see a two-loss Navy win the conference. After the blowout against Notre Dame this weekend, I don’t know if the committee would put Navy ahead of Boise State or Appalachian State, either.
The Broncos and Mountaineers are the only potential non-AAC options, though. If those two teams lose another game, the AAC champion is going to the Cotton Bowl. Even a three-loss Temple or UCF winning the AAC would get the bid before a two-loss team from any other conference.