Utah vs Oregon
As the season has gone on and the Pac 12 has seen historic parity, the conference’s Playoff chances have felt weaker. Each team in the conference has at least four wins. However, aside from Utah and Oregon, each team has at least four losses, as well.
The Pac 12’s narrative has been set for months now. Oregon is a good team with a heartbreaking opening loss against another good team. The Ducks are still winning its games against a decent schedule, but nothing special stands out. Utah is a good team that is blowing everyone out, but the Utes played one bad game against USC, and now they’re a one-loss team with no meaningful wins.
The narrative is clear: Utah and Oregon each need to win out, meet each other at 11-1 in the Pac 12 Championship Game, and then the conference hopes that one team wins decisively enough to get a Playoff bid.
With the current rankings situation, though, that all changes. Iowa State is certainly going to be the first four-loss team to make its way into the rankings when push comes to shove. After the Cyclones, though, the next two best four-loss resumes in the country are Washington and USC.
I highly doubt that both of those teams will make it into the rankings this week. It’s quite possible that neither does. However, if both teams successfully finish at 8-4, I expect we’ll see both of them in the committee’s Top 25 entering conference championship weekend.
If that happens, the season’s entire narrative instantly changes. Oregon isn’t a team with a good loss and no quality wins. Suddenly, the Ducks are 2-0 against the Top 25 and facing a Top 10 Utah team in the Pac 12 Championship Game. Utah, meanwhile, is not the team that blew out everyone but Washington and USC anymore. Instead, the Utes are a team that went 1-1 against Top 25 competition, while blowing out everyone else they face.
The chaos at the bottom of the rankings has been great for Oregon and Utah. As long as Washington and USC can win their final few games, the rankings should clear space for them at the bottom. That will matter when Selection Sunday rolls around.