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The Washington Nationals (38-41) and San Diego Padres (43-41) wrap up a 3-game set at Petco Park Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 2-0
The Nationals lost 9-7 as -121 favorites in the 2nd game of the series Tuesday as the Over (7.5) hit. Washington has lost 3 of its last 4 games and is on a 4-1 run to the Over. The Nationals lost 7-6 in 10 innings on Monday.
Padres LF Jurickson Profar hit a grand slam in the 6th inning, 5 innings after being involved in a benches-clearing exchange with Nationals C Keibert Ruiz. Padres 3B Manny Machado also homered for San Diego, which cashed as a +112 underdog.
Nationals at Padres projected starters
LHP DJ Herz vs. RHP Dylan Cease
Herz (1-1, 4.50 ERA) makes his 5th start. The rookie has a 1.33 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 13.0 K/9 in 18 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 3 ER (4 R), 7 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 11-5 victory at Colorado Rockies Friday
- Never faced Padres before
Cease (6-6, 4.14 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 in 91 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 10 K in 9-5 home victory vs. Milwaukee Brewers Friday
- 2024 home stats: 2-4, 4.31 ERA (39 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 12.0 K/9 in 7 starts
- Never faced Nationals before
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Nationals at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:36 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Nationals +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Padres -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Natinoals +1.5 (-135) | Padres -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Nationals at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 6, Nationals 4
Moneyline
The Padres (-190) will likely win, but it’s hard to beat MLB long term betting into sides that are -180 or higher.
PASS. Bet the run line and/or total instead.
Run line/Against the spread
Cease should bounce back after allowing 11 ER over his last 2 starts (8 1/3 IP). He had given up 3 ER or fewer in 3 straight starts before allowing 7 at the New York Mets June 16 and 4 against the Brewers on Friday. The Padres are 3-2 in his last 5 starts, but each of those wins were by 3 or more runs.
Herz has been serviceable for the Nationals, allowing 4 ER or fewer in each start during his rookie campaign, but he likely won’t even pitch 5 innings. With how heated this series has been, I don’t want to bet on a rookie pitcher to try to keep it close.
BET PADRES -1.5 (+110).
Over/Under
The Over has hit in 6 straight Padres games and 4 of the last 5 for the Nationals. I don’t want to fade the Padres offense, which has scored 7 or more runs in back-to-back games, especially with a rookie taking the mound for Washington.
BET OVER 7.5 (-115).
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