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The Washington Nationals (13-14) and Miami Marlins (6-23) meet Monday for the finale of a 4-game series. First pitch from loanDepot park is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Washington leads 3-0
Washington picked up a 12-9 win over Miami in the 3rd game of the series Sunday while cashing as a +117 road underdog. DH Nick Senzel homered twice for the Nationals in the win. Washington has won each of its last 3 games and is 4-0 in its last 4 on the road.
Miami jumped out to a 7-0 lead by the end of the 2nd inning, but the Nationals would go on to score 10 unanswered runs from the 4th to the 6th.
Nationals at Marlins projected starters
RHP Jake Irvin vs. LHP Trevor Rogers
Irvin (1-2, 4.55 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 27 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 12 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 11-2 loss vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Wednesday
- Career vs. Miami: 0-0, 2.81 ERA (16 IP, 5 ER), 12 H, 8 BB, 11 K in 3 starts
Rogers (0-3, 4.10 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.52 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 26 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 5-0 loss vs. Atlanta Braves Tuesday
- Career vs. Washington: 3-2, 3.22 ERA (36 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 33 H, 16 BB, 36 K across 8 starts
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Nationals at Marlins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:23 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Nationals +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Marlins -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-165) | Marlins -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Nationals at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Nationals 7, Marlins 4
Moneyline
PASS.
I fully expect the Nationals (+120) to complete the sweep here, but I like their odds better on the run line, as they have been more dominant on the RL than straight up this season. Bet on the RL and/or O/U instead.
I also am not a fan of doubling down on a team for the moneyline and RL, but if you are, then this bet could be worth a small wager.
Run line/Against the spread
BET NATIONALS +1.5 (-165).
The Nationals have covered in each of their last 4 games and are 6-2 on the RL in their last 8. Washington is also 17-10 on the RL this season, while the Marlins are only 9-20.
Washington is the much hotter team at 4-0 in its last 4 road games, while the Marlins have lost 6 consecutive outings.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 8 (-115).
The Over has hit in back-to-back games for both teams and has been a slightly safer 15-14 for the Nationals this season. The Over has also hit 5 of the last 6 Washington-Miami matchups and is 3-2 in Washington’s last 5 wins vs. Miami.
This is only a lean because the Under is 15-11-1 for the Marlins this year and has hit in 6 of the last 10 games overall for each team.
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