The Washington Nationals (18-25) will finish out a 3-game series against the Miami Marlins (22-21) on Thursday at loanDepot park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Marlins lead 2-0
The Nationals lost to the Marlins 4-3 on Wednesday. Washington has lost 5 of its last 8 games and is in last place in the NL East, 9 games behind the 1st-place Atlanta Braves.
In Wednesday’s win over the Nationals, OF Jorge Soler hit his 11th homer of the season in the 4th inning to give the Marlins the lead. Miami is on a 3-game winning streak and is currently 2nd place in the NL East, 5 games back of the Braves.
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Nationals at Marlins projected starters
RHP Trevor Williams vs. RHP Eury Perez
Williams (1-1, 4.23 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 in 38 1/3 innings.
- Has allowed multiple ER in 5 of his 8 starts
- Owns the 3rd-worst barrel percentage (14.2%) among pitchers who have faced 150-plus batters this season
Perez (0-0, 3.86 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 13.5 K/9 in 4 2/3 innings.
- First career start on May 12 vs. the Cincinnati Reds: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 7 K in Marins 7-4 loss
- Was 3-1 with a 2.32 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9, and 12.2 K/9 in 6 starts at Triple-A this season before being called up
Nationals at Marlins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:57 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Nationals +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Marlins -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-165) | Marlins -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Nationals at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 4, Nationals 3
Moneyline
Given Miami’s recent success and with Perez taking the mound, the MARLINS (-150) are the choice in this NL East clash. The Nationals are 1-7 in the last 8 road meetings against the Marlins and 7-22 in the last 29 meetings overall.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
As exciting as it is for Perez to make his 2nd start in the majors, young pitchers can be susceptible to needing an adjustment period to settle themselves in the majors. Even though I expect a solid outing from Perez, the Nationals will keep it within 2 runs, and taking the run line at -165 odds isn’t worth it.
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Over/Under
UNDER 8 (-105) is the lean in this matchup despite Williams struggling to avoid barrels this season. The Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Miami and 4-1-2 in the last 7 meetings overall.
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