The Cincinnati Reds (59-54) welcome the Washington Nationals (48-63) to Great American Ball Park Sunday for the finale of a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Reds lead 4-2
The Nationals took down the Reds 7-3 Saturday and won the series opener 6-3 in 10 innings Friday. Washington is 26-29 on the road this season and is 23 1/2 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East.
The Reds are just 3-7 over their last 10 games and have fallen 1 1/2 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central. Cincinnati is 28-28 at home this season and had swept Washington in a 4-game set from July 3-6.
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Nationals at Reds projected starters
RHP Jake Irving vs. RHP Lyon Richardson
Irving (3-5, 4.86 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 through 79 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 5-3 home victory vs. Milwaukee Brewers Monday
- Home stats: 2-4, 4.83 ERA (59 2/3 IP, 32 ER) in 12 starts
- Career vs. Reds: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 3 K in a 3-2 loss on July 3
Richardson makes his 1st career start. He is 0-2 with a 1.86 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 12.6 K/9 through 58 IP across 19 starts for A-Dayton, AA-Chattanooga and AAA-Louisville.
- 2nd round draft pick in 2018
- Last outing: No-decision, 3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 5 K for AAA-Louisville on July 28
Nationals at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:42 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Nationals +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Reds -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-135) | Reds -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Nationals at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 5, Nationals 4
Moneyline
PASS.
The Nationals will get to face Richardson, a rising prospect. While they should be able to hang close, the run line presents better value. Cincinnati (-160) has struggled lately, so backing it at that price doesn’t make much sense.
Run line/Against the spread
BET NATIONALS +1.5 (-135).
The unknown regarding how Richardson will perform in his MLB is a cause for concern. The Reds have allowed 5 or more runs in 6 straight games, giving up 54 runs in that span.
The Reds are just 13-14 on the run line as a favorite while Washington is 60-45 as an underdog. The Nationals are also 27-20 on the run line following a win. Take NATIONALS +1.5 (-135).
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Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 11 (-115).
Washington is 52-55-4 O/U this season, and it has gone Under in 8 of its last 10 games. The Nationals are 0-3 O/U in their last 3 games as well. They are 0-5 O/U in their last 5 games with a double-digit line.
The Reds are 0-3 O/U over their last 3 games and 3-5 O/U over their last 8. Take UNDER 10.5 (+100).
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