The Cincinnati Reds (59-53) welcome the Washington Nationals (47-63) to Great American Ball Park Saturday. First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Reds lead 4-1.
The Reds swept the Nationals from July 3-July 6 in 4-game series. Cincinnati lost 6-3 Friday, though. It is now 28-27 at home and 4-6 over its last 10.
Washington, which sits last in the NL East, is 25-29 on the road. It has won 6 of its last 10. It won 2 of 3 against the Milwaukee Brewers earlier in the week.
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Nationals at Reds projected starters
RHP Joan Adon vs. LHP Andrew Abbott
Adon (0-0, 5.40 ERA) makes his 3rd appearance and 1st start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 through 5 IP.
- Went 3-5 with a 4.62 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 8.2 K/9 in 17 starts at Triple-A Rochester
- 1 career start vs. Reds: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 4 K June 2, 2022
Abbott (6-2, 2.35 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 through 65 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 3 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 5 K in a 6-5 win at the Chicago Cubs July 31
- 2023 home stats: 2-1, 1.60 ERA (33 2/3 IP, 6 ER) in 5 starts
Nationals at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:45 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Nationals +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Reds -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-105) | Reds -1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Nationals at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 6, Nationals 3
Moneyline
PASS.
The Reds should be able to bounce back and has performed well with Abbott on the mound this season. They have struggled at home though and are not worth any play at (-225).
Similarly, the Nats haven’t performed at a high level for most of the season and will have the inferior pitcher on the mound. Avoid backing the Nats at (+185) as well.
Run line/Against the spread
BET REDS -1.5 (-115).
The Reds are the 5th-best team in the majors on the run line after a loss, posting a 31-21 run line record.
Cincinnati is also 9-2 with Abbott on the mound and has won 5 of those 11 starts by 2 or more. Washington is 59-45 as a run line underdog, which ranks in the bottom half of the league in covering as an underdog.
Couple the Reds’ success after a loss and their success with Abbott, and take REDS -1.5 (-115).
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Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 10.5 (-105).
After giving up 36 runs in 2 games to the Cubs, the Reds have gone Under in 2 straight and are 4-9 O/U over their last 13 games. They have gone Under in 3 of Abbott’s last 4 starts.
The Nationals are 52-54-4 O/U on the season and have gone Under in 4 of their last 5 games and in 8 of their last 10. Washington is just 20-25-1 O/U following a win.
Take UNDER 10.5 (-105).
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