The Washington Nationals (21-29) fell to the Atlanta Braves (25-26) on Monday and will look to bounce back Tuesday at 7:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Stephen Strasburg is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals. He is 1-2 with a 4.43 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 and 5.3 BB/9 in 20 1/3 IP over four starts.
Strasburg has made two starts since returning from a shoulder strain, allowing 3 ER in 10 1/3 IP, with a 9/5 K/BB rate.
LHP Max Fried is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. He is 2-2 with a 4.63 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 35 IP over seven starts.
Fried got off to a rough start this season but has given up exactly 1 ER in each of his last four starts. He has faced the Nationals twice already with mixed results that add up to 6 ER in 7 IP with 9 strikeouts.
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Nationals at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:02 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Nationals +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Braves -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-185) | home -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Braves 5, Nationals 4
Money line (ML)
The strikeouts and velocity for Strasburg are nowhere near his pre-2020 levels. Strasburg is also allowing a lot of hard contact for the second straight year, with a hard-hit rate of 47.3%.
Fried’s skills have slipped as well, and his recent success has been mainly due to an overcorrection on BABIP, from .513 in April to .230 in May.
But, Fried has the better offense supporting him and is facing a team that is 8-14 on the road this year.
Go with the BRAVES (-135) in this one.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Braves have won 14 games at home this season, with six of those coming by just a single run.
Odds are, this will be another pretty close game, and it is probably best to simply PASS on the total and look elsewhere for value.
Over/Under (O/U)
Atlanta has a 17-9-2 O/U record at home this season and this is a matchup of two big-name pitchers who aren’t at their best right now.
Furthermore, the Nationals rank eighth in wRC+ vs lefties, while the Braves are ninth in the category against right-handed pitching.
Neither team is likely to have a huge day, but both should do their part in pushing this total OVER 8.5 (-105).
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