Washington Commanders at Denver Broncos odds, picks and predictions

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The Washington Commanders (1-0) take on the Denver Broncos (0-1) Sunday afternoon. Kickoff from Empower Field at Mile High is at 4:25pm ET (CBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Commanders vs. Broncos odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

Both Washington and Denver entered Week 1 with high expectations, and both disappointed. The Commanders were 7-point home favorites against an Arizona team who many think is tanking for the #1 pick. Yes, the Commanders won 20-16 as the Under (38) hit, but they trailed in the 4th quarter, and QB Sam Howell had a lower QB rating (77.6) than Arizona QB Joshua Dobbs (78.8).

The Washington offense was shaky. It recorded 248 total yards with 3 turnovers, and no player shined. RB Brian Robinson Jr. led the team with 66 total yards (59 rushing, 7 receiving).

That being said, Denver had the worse Week 1. With all the hype around a new look team, the Broncos looked similar to last year. The defense kept the game close, but QB Russell Wilson needed to put more points on the board. The Las Vegas Raiders, who many believe will finish at the bottom of the AFC West, beat Denver 17-16 as 3-point road underdogs as the Under (43.5) hit.

Backup RB Samaje Perine led the team in yards with 78 (41 rushing, 37 receiving). Not surprising, Wilson recorded 4.6 yards per pass, vs. 7.7 yards from Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Week 2 will paint a clearer picture on how good these teams actually are.

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Commanders at Broncos odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 2:43 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Commanders +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Broncos -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Commanders +3.5 (-110) | Broncos -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 38.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Commanders at Broncos key injuries

Commanders

DB Jartavius Martin (concussion) out
WR Terry McLaurin (toe) available
DE Chase Young (neck) available

Broncos

OLB Frank Clark (hip) out
TE Greg Dulcich (hamstring) out
WR Jerry Jeudy (hamstring) available

Commanders at Broncos picks and predictions

Prediction

Broncos 20, Commanders 17

Moneyline

Home-field advantage wasn’t as helpful as one might think. Home teams in Week 1 went 6-10 straight up.

Now, in Denver’s opening loss, its defense showed it is still a major factor, although there is 1 glaring issue. While the defense allowed an NFL-best 2.1 yards per carry, its net yards allowed per pass was 4th-worst.

Lucky for them, Washington will struggle to take advantage. Howell’s 31 pass attempts was 21st in Week 1.

The Broncos (-190) should be able to pull this one out at home, but at -190, it’s best to PASS.

Against the spread

Both teams failed to cover last week. Washington was a 7-point favorite but only won by 4, and Denver was a 2.5-point favorite and lost to Las Vegas.

But it wasn’t just these teams. In Week 1, home favorites covered just 20% of the time (2-8 ATS). And since sportsbooks are giving Washington more than a field goal to cover, I like the Commanders to keep it close, especially with the Broncos’ offense eerily similar to last year.

BET WASHINGTON +3.5 (-110).

Over/Under

With 1 fewer preseason game, a lot of teams looked rusty in Week 1, and while that won’t last, these 2 teams may find scoring difficult this entire season.

In their openers, both Washington and Denver hit the Under. Washington and Arizona combined for 36 points (vs. the line of 38) and Denver vs. Las Vegas wasn’t close — both teams scored just 33 points (vs. a 44.5 O/U).

When Washington dropped back to pass, just 67% of Sam Howell’s throws hit the target — that was tied for 31st with the Chicago Bears and New York Jets. The main reason was that 15% of these throws by Sam Howell were incomplete, which was 29th in the NFL.

Denver’s score was relatively low because its play calling ate away at the clock. Two of the 3 times Denver scored, it used over 8 minutes of game time, and that doesn’t appear to be an accident under coach Sean Payton.

LEAN UNDER 38.5 (-110).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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