The scalding-hot Utah Jazz (26-6) visit the Miami Heat (15-17) Friday at American Airlines Arena at 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Jazz-Heat odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Miami is starting to finally look like the team that represented the East in the NBA Finals last season. The Heat have won and covered four straight, which included a revenge victory over the Los Angeles Lakers on the road. Miami’s poor health luck is the main reason for the losing record.
Unless you’ve been living under a rock you know that the Jazz have been on fire since the second week of January. Utah has won 22 of its last 24 games and has covered in 21 of those wins. The Jazz just trampled the Lakers 114-89 Wednesday as 8.5-point home favorites.
Utah destroyed Miami 112-94 as 7-point home favorites back on Feb. 13, but the Heat were missing PG Goran Dragic for that game.
Heat at Jazz: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:55 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Heat +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Jazz -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Heat +6.5 (-110) | Jazz -6.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 218.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Heat at Jazz: Key injuries
Heat
- SG Tyler Herro (hip) questionable
- C Bam Adebayo (knee) questionable
Jazz
- None affecting gambling odds.
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Heat at Jazz: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Jazz 109, Heat 107
Money line (ML)
PASS with a lean on the Heat (+220) since I like Miami to cover. Ultimately, it’s not enough value at the moment given Utah’s recent performance and the current injury report.
As always, make sure you wait until as close to tip-off as possible for the final injury news. If Miami’s big Bam Adebayo cannot play then it would really take a Utah stink for the Heat to pull out the victory.
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Against the spread (ATS)
Dragic has missed 14 of the Heat’s 32 games, and his importance to Miami’s offensive execution has been understated. With Dragic out of the lineup, there’s less floor spacing for the Heat, and according to CleaningTheGlass.com, Dragic is in the 89th percentile of guards in on-off effective field goal percentage.
Furthermore, the Jazz have the lowest defensive turnover percentage while Miami has the highest offensive turnover percentage. But, with Dragic back running the show for the Heat, my read is Miami will run some good offense Friday and will win the turnover battle in this game.
TAKE the HEAT +6.5 (-110) for 1 unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
GIMME UNDER 218.5 (-110) for a half-unit. The total has been steamed up from a 217-point opener because the more than 90% of the money is on the Over, according to Pregame.com. So a fade the market play is obvious since we all know 90% of bettors don’t make money off the House.
Additionally, Utah plays at the 22nd-fastest pace, and Miami is 23rd in pace of play. So both teams should be able to set up their defenses and force the opponent to sink tough shots.
Want some action on this one? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
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Also see:
- Bet Slippin’ Podcast: PGA Tour double-dip and what’s up with James Harden’s MVP odds?
- Hoops Hype rumors: Heat | Jazz
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