By all metrics, the Oregon Ducks are expected to have a pretty successful season in 2023. That shouldn’t come as much of a surprise; Dan Lanning had a great first year as a head coach and now is more experienced going into 2023; the offense brings back QB Bo Nix, WR Troy Franklin, RB Bucky Irving, and TE Terrance Ferguson, among many other impact players; the defense has re-tooled and hopes to be much more productive with an improved pass-rush and speedy secondary.
While their preseason rankings across a number of polls may not reflect the high expectations that are held in Eugene, their projected record and early-season odds going into each game say differently.
On Tuesday, we looked at the newly updated ESPN Football Power Index projections for the Pac-12 Conference, seeing which teams out west are most likely to ultimately win the conference title in the final year of its existence. For those unfamiliar with ESPN’s FPI, it is a ranking that “relies on past performance, offense and defense, returning and transfer production, and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.”
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Virtually, it’s ESPN’s way of declaring the top teams in the nation, looking at their roster, their schedule, their percent chance to win each game, and where that ultimately lands them after the season comes to an end.
After spring football concluded, ESPN’s FPI looked at each game on the schedule and gave a win percentage for each team based on their metrics. Following the remainder of the offseason and a few roster changes for each team, those odds have now been updated by ESPN as we get closer to the season actually starting.
Here’s how the odds have chanced for Oregon just a few weeks out from the first kickoff: