We’ve had a chance to catch our breath and come down from what we witnessed about half a week ago when Ohio State found a way to pull an instant classic out in South Bend over a top-10 (at the time) Notre Dame team. It kept a lot of goals and desires on the table, and now it’s off to the next leg of a still demanding journey.
There were many national media members picking the Fighting Irish to knock off a Buckeye team still kind of figuring things out on offense. This was a significant test OSU passed, and it changed a bit of the narrative surrounding what this team can do.
One thing we like to keep tabs on weekly is how the last week’s docket of games affected Ohio State’s chances of winning each of its remaining games according to the Football Percentage Index’s (FPI) matchup predictor. There has indeed been some slight changes with the ESPN model.
Here’s a look at what the percentage chance of the Buckeyes winning games against Wisconsin, Penn State, and yes — Michigan — after Week 4, and the changes from the previous week. Keep in mind, these trends and percentages have just as much to do with the opponents’ performance as with Ohio State.
Here’s where things stand 1/3 of the way through the 2023 season.