The Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints came through for us and covered as underdogs in Week 10, while the Las Vegas Raiders fell far short.
That makes it eight winning weeks out of 10 here this season for an overall against-the-spread (ATS) record of 22-8 with 18 outright winners.
Here are our NFL underdog ATS picks and predictions of Week 11.
NFL underdog predictions: Week 11
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 5:06 p.m. ET.
Houston Texans +9.5 (+100) at Tennessee Titans
The AFC-leading Titans (8-2 straight up, 7-3 ATS) have won six in a row and covered in five of their last six with the last five coming against 2020 playoff teams.
But with a road game at the suddenly surging New England Patriots looming in Week 12, this is prime letdown spot for Tennessee.
Take the TEXANS +9.5 (+100) and QB Tyrod Taylor and to keep things close in a division game coming off a bye.
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New Orleans Saints +2.5 (-105) at Philadelphia Eagles
Is the wrong team favored here? Here’s the case:
The Saints are a league-best 11-3 SU and 12-2 ATS as an underdog since 2018, including 3-1 and 4-0, respectively, this season.
The Eagles are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS at home this season.
We’ll bank on the league’s best run defense negating the league’s third-best rushing attack and go with the SAINTS +2.5 (-105), hitting the +110 money line as well.
Also see: All Week 11 odds and lines
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Indianapolis Colts +7.5 (-117) at Buffalo Bills
This is a rematch of last January’s AFC Wild Card Game won 27-24 by the host Bills.
Buffalo didn’t cover as a touchdown favorite that day and has failed to cover in three of its previous four games this season heading into Sunday’s meeting.
Indy has won four of its last five – losing only to the Titans 34-31 in overtime in Week 8 – and figures to keep things tight in Orchard Park. Take the COLTS +7.5 (-117) catching more than a TD.
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