In a women’s flyweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Montana De La Rosa and Taila Santos meet at UFC Vegas 16 at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, followed by the main card on ESPN2/ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET. Other names for the event are UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori and UFC on ESPN 19.
De La Rosa (11-6) started out 3-0 with three submission victories, but she has cooled off lately with just one win in her past three bouts – all three going the distance. Over 17 career professional fights, De La Rosa has had 10 fights finish inside the distance with one KO/TKO loss and nine finishes via submission (8-1). On the mat, De La Rosa’s go-to moves for a tap out are either the armbar or the rear-naked choke.
Santos (16-1) is heavily favored in this one because she is statistically better in nearly every facet. She has a 4.09 to 3.03 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, and she is ahead 46.00 to 35.42 in significant strikes-accuracy percentage. She is also up 2.33 to 1.96 in takedown average, with a whopping 77.78 to 30.00 takedown-accuracy percentage. She lost her UFC debut against Mara Romero Borella by split-decision on Feb. 2, 2019, but she bounced back with a unanimous decision win over Molly McCann July 15. Each of Santos’ past three fights have gone the distance.
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Montana De La Rosa vs. Taila Santos: Betting odds, predictions and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:35 a.m. ET.
Santos (-225) is just a little heavier of a favorite than I am comfortable playing, so let’s get a little more specific.
SANTOS ON POINTS (-110) is the way to go as each of her two fights at the UFC level have gone the distance. Again, as previously mentioned, playing -225 on the two-way line is a little more expensive than I am comfortable with. However, sometimes you have to roll the dice a little, and playing YES (-225): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? should be a safe play.
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Also see:
- UFC on ESPN 19 predictions (MMA Junkie)
- Photos: UFC on ESPN 19 weigh-ins & faceoffs (MMA Junkie)
- More UFC/MMA coverage from MMA Junkie
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