In a bantamweight bout on the main card, Raoni Barcelos and Khalid Taha meet at UFC on ESPN+ 40 Saturday at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The early prelims kick off at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 10 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.
Barcelos (15-1) steps in on short notice for Jack Shore, who encountered visa issues. The Brazilian fighter enters this bout with a perfect 3-0 record since arriving at the UFC level. He has a submission win in the second round over Chris Gutierrez at the TUF 28 Finale on Nov. 30, 2018. He has shown tremendous versatility over his past few outings, recording wins by way of unanimous decision, while also winning by way of KO/TKO and submission, too. That ability to win fights in a variety of ways makes him an attractive wagering target.
Taha (13-2) has had mixed results at the UFC level so far, losing his debut against Nad Narimani before bouncing back with a 25-second KO/TKO in Round 1 against Boston Salmon at UFC 236. Taha’s last outing was a no contest against Bruno Silva at UFC 243 on Oct. 5, 2019. He was originally awarded a win, but it was later changed due to a failed USADA drug test. He was subsequently suspended for one year as a result of the violation, so we’ll see if there is any rust.
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Raoni Barcelos vs. Khalid Taha: Betting odds, predictions and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:08 a.m. ET.
Barcelos (-400) will cost you four times your potential return on the 2-way line, and that’s just too risky, even against a fighter returning from a lengthy absence. AVOID, and look to more specific wagers.
Perhaps the best bet on this fight is NO (-152): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? as Barcelos has finished inside the distance in two of his three fights at the UFC level, and four of his past five pro fights overall. As far as Taha is concerned, he has finished inside the distance in 12 of his 15 career fights as a pro, including a perfect 9-0 record via TKO/KO and 2-1 by way of submission. As such, I like UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-115). And if you want to get really specific, target BARCELOS IN ROUND 2 (+450) and BARCELOS IN ROUND 3 (+800) for the win. Sure, you will lose one end of that ticket, but you’ll still be well ahead if the bout ends in one of those specific rounds.
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Also see:
- UFC on ESPN+ 40 predictions (MMA Junkie)
- Barcelos aims to show he’s ‘amongst the best’ (MMA Junkie)
- MMA Junkie – The latest UFC/MMA coverage
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