In a heavyweight bout on the main card, Andrei Arlovski and Tanner Boser meet at UFC on ESPN+ 40 Saturday at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The early prelims kick off at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 10 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.
Arlovski (29-19) steps into the octagon with a two-inch reach advantage over his Canadian counterpart, but he is behind in significant strikes landed per minute at 4.54 to 3.54, and also behind 54.30 to 44.40 in significant strikes-accuracy percentage. Arlovski likes to take it to the mat, posting a 36.67 takedown accuracy, although the veteran hasn’t recorded a submission victory since Feb. 5, 2005. So, when you look to specific method of victory, you can avoid submission. He is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Philipe Lins last time out May 13 in Jacksonville. However, he hasn’t won consecutive victories since back-to-back wins over Stefan Struve (March 3, 2018) and Junior Albini (Nov. 11, 2017).
Boser (19-6-1) has posted consecutive KO/TKO victories over Lins and Raphael Pessoa, and he is 3-1 in the past four since arriving at the UFC level. “The Bulldozer” is known for his punching power, especially his devastating left hook, which caught Pessoa in the second round on July 25 last time out. Boser has really improved his striking lately, and that combination with lower-body kicks is a dangerous recipe. Arlovski has faced plenty of brawlers who want to out-brawl the 41-year-old. Boser is patient, and versatile, and should be able to put Arlovski down before heading to the judges for a decision.
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Andrei Arlovski vs. Tanner Boser: Betting odds, predictions and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:36 a.m. ET.
Boser (-334) is an overwhelming favorite against the Belarussian, but you can’t take him on the 2-way line and post more than three times your potential return. Instead, look to the 5-way line for method of victory. BOSER BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (+160) is a surprisingly profitable return. In addition, roll with NO (-106): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? for a winning combination.
For a little extra value, look to UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+115). Boser hasn’t had a submission win since 2014, and Arlovski hasn’t had one since 2005, so avoid Submission (+1100) for the fight finish, as tempting as that looks. Instead, take KO/TKO/DQ (+105) for the method of win. That’s a safe play if you’re not feeling either Arlovski or Boser, but want a little action with minimal risk.
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Also see:
- UFC on ESPN+ 40 predictions (MMA Junkie)
- Boser: Beating Arlovski ‘won’t be easy’ (MMA Junkie)
- MMA Junkie – The latest UFC/MMA coverage
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