In a featherweight bout on the main card, Alex Caceres meets Seungwoo Choi Saturday at UFC Fight Night 196 – also known as UFC Vegas 41 and UFC on ESPN+ 54 – at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC Fight Night 196 Caceres vs. Choi odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the prelims at 1 p.m. ET and the main card at 4 p.m. ET.
Caceres, who has one of the best nicknames in MMA as “Bruce Leeroy,” heads into the octagon with a four-bout win streak. Caceres has managed three unanimous-decisions, including against Kevin Croom last time out on Feb. 27, and he has a submission victory during his win streak.
Five of Caceres’ past seven pro fights have ended up going the distance. His Achilles’ heel is on the canvas as he has a 6-7 record via submission in 30 career professional bouts. The good news for Choi is he is 0-1 via submission in his 13 career fights.
Choi enters on a three-bout heater, including a first-round KO/TKO over Julian Erosa last time out on The Korean Zombie-Ige card June 19. However, like Caceres, he has been involving the judges a lot lately, with just two stoppages in his five fights at the UFC level.
UFC Fight Night 196 Caceres vs. Choi: Odds and lines
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:22 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Caceres +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Choi -290 (bet $290 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -250 | Under +170)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -180 | No +130)
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UFC Fight Night 196 Caceres vs. Choi: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Caceres (18-12-0) | Choi (10-3-0)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
CACERES (+220) is a value play over Choi, who enters as the overwhelming favorite. But Caceres heads in with a 4.10-to-3.31 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, and they’re nearly identical in strike-accuracy percentage. Neither of these fighters are particularly interested in going to the mat, but Caceres is better in submission average if it comes to that.
The value is on the underdog with a chance to more than double up on the two-way line.
Over/Under (O/U)
YES (-180): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE is the play in this one as neither fighter has been able to grab the finish lately.
In addition, CACERES ON POINTS (+380) is worth a roll of the dice to multiply your initial stake by four. If he wins, this is the way to go.
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