Tag: UFC Fight Night 196 odds lines picks predictions best bets

UFC Fight Night 196: Alex Caceres vs. Seungwoo Choi odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 196 odds and lines between Alex Caceres vs. Seungwoo Choi, with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a featherweight bout on the main card, Alex Caceres meets Seungwoo Choi Saturday at UFC Fight Night 196 – also known as UFC Vegas 41 and UFC on ESPN+ 54 – at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC Fight Night 196 Caceres vs. Choi odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the prelims at 1 p.m. ET and the main card at 4 p.m. ET.

Caceres, who has one of the best nicknames in MMA as “Bruce Leeroy,” heads into the octagon with a four-bout win streak. Caceres has managed three unanimous-decisions, including against Kevin Croom last time out on Feb. 27, and he has a submission victory during his win streak.

Five of Caceres’ past seven pro fights have ended up going the distance. His Achilles’ heel is on the canvas as he has a 6-7 record via submission in 30 career professional bouts. The good news for Choi is he is 0-1 via submission in his 13 career fights.

Choi enters on a three-bout heater, including a first-round KO/TKO over Julian Erosa last time out on The Korean Zombie-Ige card June 19. However, like Caceres, he has been involving the judges a lot lately, with just two stoppages in his five fights at the UFC level.

UFC Fight Night 196 Caceres vs. Choi: Odds and lines

Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:22 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Caceres +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Choi -290 (bet $290 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -250 | Under +170)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -180 | No +130)

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UFC Fight Night 196 Caceres vs. Choi: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Records: Caceres (18-12-0) | Choi (10-3-0)

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

CACERES (+220) is a value play over Choi, who enters as the overwhelming favorite. But Caceres heads in with a 4.10-to-3.31 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, and they’re nearly identical in strike-accuracy percentage. Neither of these fighters are particularly interested in going to the mat, but Caceres is better in submission average if it comes to that.

The value is on the underdog with a chance to more than double up on the two-way line.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES (-180): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE is the play in this one as neither fighter has been able to grab the finish lately.

In addition, CACERES ON POINTS (+380) is worth a roll of the dice to multiply your initial stake by four. If he wins, this is the way to go.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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UFC Fight Night 196: Nicolae Negumereanu vs. Ike Villanueva odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 196 odds and lines between Nicolae Negumereanu vs. Ike Villanueva, with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a light heavyweight bout on the main card, Nicolae Negumereanu meets Ike Villanueva Saturday at UFC Fight Night 196 – also known as UFC Vegas 41 and UFC on ESPN+ 54 – at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC Fight Night 196 Negumereanu vs. Villanueva odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the prelims at 1 p.m. ET and the main card at 4 p.m. ET.

Negumereanu takes the walk to the octagon with a five-inch reach advantage over his counterpart, and he has six knockout wins in 11 career professional fights. His two UFC fights have ended up as decisions, including a split-decision win over Aleksa Camur last time out on the The Korean Zombie-Ige card June 19.

Villanueva enters this fight with four UFC results under his belt. He has posted a 1-3 record, with a KO/TKO loss in Round 2 against Marcin Prachnio last time out on the Gane-Volkov card June 26.

UFC Fight Night 196 Negumereanu vs. Villanueva: Odds and lines

Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:15 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Negumereanu -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Villanueva +190 (bet $100 to win $190)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -125 | Under -110)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +160 | No -230)

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UFC Fight Night 196 Negumereanu vs. Villanueva: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Records: Negumereanu (10-1-0) | Villanueva (18-12-0)

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

I really like Negumereanu (-250) to win this fight, but putting up two-and-a-half times your potential return is risky business. Perhaps if you time him into a parlay with several other fighters and/or round totals, the risk is mitigated somewhat, but you can’t play it straight up.

Instead of playing the 2-way result, look to the Method of Victory section, and play NEGUMEREANU BY KO/TKO (+170) as he looks to use that reach advantage for the quick finish. Villanueva has been knocked out of three of his past four.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-125) is the play, even though I don’t feel this one goes the distance. Negumereanu has been taken the distance in each of his two fights at the UFC level, so he needs to record some finishes before we can trust him for the quick stoppage.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow @WinWithJoe on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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UFC Fight Night 196: Francisco Trinaldo vs. Dwight Grant odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 195 odds and lines between Francisco Trinaldo vs. Dwight Grant, with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a welterweight bout on the main card, Francisco Trinaldo meets Dwight Grant Saturday at UFC Fight Night 196 – also known as UFC Vegas 41 and UFC on ESPN+ 54 – at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC Fight Night 196 Trinaldo vs. Grant odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the prelims at 1 p.m. ET and the main card at 4 p.m. ET.

Trinaldo is looking to bounce back from a unanimous-decision loss to Muslim Salikhov his last time out in June. That loss snapped a three-bout win streak. Trinaldo has gone the distance in four of his past five bouts.

Grant hits the octagon with three victories across his last four UFC fights, including a split-decision win over Stefan Sekulic at UFC 261 April 24. Three of his last five fights have gone the distance, all three resulting in split decisions.

Grant, a.k.a. “The Body Snatcher”, has a huge six-inch reach advantage and stands four inches taller than his Brazilian counterpart.

UFC Fight Night 196 Trinaldo vs. Grant: Odds and lines

Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:08 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Trinaldo -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Grant +117 (bet $100 to win $117)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -180 | Under +130)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -160 | No +115)

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UFC Fight Night 196 Trinaldo vs. Grant: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Records: Trinaldo (26-8-0) | Grant (11-3-0)

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

GRANT (+117) heads into this one with the physical attributes, now can he make them work for him? It’s worth the risk to find out.

He should be able to keep Trinaldo at a distance with that giant reach advantage, and as long as Grant avoids going to the mat he should be OK. Trinaldo has a distinct advantage if he gets the American to the canvas early.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES (-160): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCES? is the lean here. I think Grant gets it done, but not without having to wow the judges. He’ll do just that if he can keep the fight upright and rock Trinaldo with big punches.

As such, I also like GRANT ON POINTS (+275) for the Method of Victory and a chance to earn more than two and a half times your initial stake.

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Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow @WinWithJoe on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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UFC Fight Night 196: Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Joselyne Edwards odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 196 odds and lines between Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Joselyne Edwards, with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a women’s bantamweight bout on the main card, Jessica-Rose Clark meets Joselyne Edwards Saturday at UFC Fight Night 196 – also known as UFC Vegas 41 and UFC on ESPN+ 54 – at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC Fight Night 196 Clark vs. Edwards odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the prelims at 1 p.m. ET and the main card at 4 p.m. ET.

The Aussie fighter Clark, a.k.a. “Jessy Jess”, has posted a 3-2 record at the UFC level, with just one stoppage. That finish came in a third-round KO/TKO over Sarah Alper last time out Sept. 19, 2020. She has been sidelined for over a calendar year after battling a Lisfranc injury in her right foot.

Edwards did not have her arm raised in a unanimous-decision loss to Karol Rosa last time out Feb. 6. Three of her past four pro fights have ended up going the distance, including both at the UFC level.

UFC Fight Night 196 Clark vs. Edwards: Odds and lines

Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:00 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Clark -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Edwards +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -400 | Under +255)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -290 | No +200)

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UFC Fight Night 196 Clark vs. Edwards: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Records: Clark (10-6-0) | Edwards (10-3-0)

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

CLARK (-165) is the better play here, although her cardio will be a concern early in her first fight in over a year.

As long as Jessy Jess can keep “La Pantera” at a distance, she’ll be just fine as she looks to wow the judges in the technical aspects. Edwards holds a six-inch reach advantage, so Clark will need to be careful of the knockout blow, even when everything appears to be going her way.

Over/Under (O/U)

Yes (-290): Will the fight go the distance? is just too expensive, as is Over 2.5 Rounds (-400).

Instead, play CLARK ON POINTS (+115) for a better value at just over even money. Neither of these fighters have been ticking off the stoppages lately, and this one should ended up going to the judges, with the Aussie coming out on top.

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Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow @WinWithJoe on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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UFC Fight Night 196: Grant Dawson vs. Ricky Glenn odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 196 odds and lines between Grant Dawson vs. Ricky Glenn, with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a lightweight bout on the main card, Grant Dawson meets Ricky Glenn Saturday at UFC Fight Night 196 – also known as UFC Vegas 41 and UFC on ESPN+ 54 – at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC Fight Night 196 Dawson vs. Glenn odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the prelims at 1 p.m. ET and the main card at 4 p.m. ET.

Dawson takes the walk to the octagon with five straight victories since his UFC debut March 9, 2019, including a third-round KO/TKO over Leonardo Santos last time out March 20, 2021.

Glenn has alternated wins and losses in each of the past five fights, and he posted a first-round KO/TKO win over Joaquim Silva in just 37 seconds on The Korean Zombie-Ige card June 19.

He has had just the one finish in his last eight fights. All of the seven others have been decisions as he’s gone 4-3 when the judges were involved.

Dawson isn’t interested in getting the judges involved, picking up two submission wins and a KO/TKO victory in his last four fights with just one decision.

UFC Fight Night 196 Dawson vs. Glenn: Odds and lines

Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:53 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Dawson -550 (bet $550 to win $100) | Glenn +370 (bet $100 to win $370)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -165 | Under +120)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -145 | No +105)

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UFC Fight Night 196 Dawson vs. Glenn: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Records: Dawson (17-1-0) | Glenn (22-6-1)

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

Dawson (-550) is going to win this fight, and it is likely going to be a finish. However, you cannot risk more than five times your potential return, as betting on big favorites like that is a losing strategy over the long term.

Instead, consider betting either DAWSON BY KO/TKO (+255) and/or DAWSON BY SUBMISSION (+330). You can bet both of these props and still be ahead, as long as he doesn’t lose or win on points.

Over/Under (O/U)

NO (+105): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCES? is a good bet, as I am looking for a Dawson finish. While Glenn has gone the distance in seven of his last eight bouts he hasn’t faced a dynamic fighter the likes of Dawson. Take advantage.

In addition, I like playing DAWSON TO WIN IN ROUND 2 (+470) and DAWSON TO WIN IN ROUND 3 (+700). Yes, you will lose one of these ends, even if he wins in Rounds 2-3, but you’ll still be quite a bit ahead.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow @WinWithJoe on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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UFC Fight Night 196: Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 196 odds and lines between Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori, with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a light heavyweight in the main event, Paulo Costa meets Marvin Vettori Saturday at UFC Fight Night 196 – also known as UFC Vegas 41 and UFC on ESPN+ 54 – at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC Fight Night 196 Costa vs. Vettori odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the prelims at 1 p.m. ET and the main card at 4 p.m. ET.

Costa lost by second-round KO/TKO at UFC 253 against Israel Adesanya in a battle for the championship belt Sept. 26, 2020. Since that setback, Costa has dropped out of two fights, including one due to injury, and another reportedly over a contract dispute.

In addition, Costa requested a catchweight limit of 195 pounds after not being able to make weight. As such, Costa agreed to give up 20 percent of his purse to Vettori as penalty.

Vettori also lost to Adesanya last time out, falling by unanimous-decision at UFC 263 June 12. In fact, each of his past three fights have ended up going the distance, all UDs, with nine of the previous 10 fights also needing the assistance of the judges. Only one of Costa’s six fights at the UFC level have ended up going the distance.

UFC Fight Night 196 Costa vs. Vettori: Odds and lines

Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:55 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Costa +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Vettori -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -116 | Under -117)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +105 | No -145)

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UFC Fight Night 196 Costa vs. Vettori: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Records: Costa (13-1-0) | Vettori (17-5-1)

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

VETTORI (-200) is a little expensive for my liking as I generally try to bet money line favorites only at -180 or lower. But sometimes you have to make exceptions.

I like Vettori as I think he is a bit miffed that Costa (+150) was unable to make weight. He’ll make him pay, and he appears a little more serious in his pursuit at another crack at Adesanya for the title. Topping Costa would move him back up the rungs of the ladder.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES (-145): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a strong play in this one. When Vettori wins, it’s usually with a stamp of approval from the judges. Nine of his past 10 fights at the UFC level have ended up going the distance, with seven wins and one draw during that span, as well as a lone submission victory over Karl Roberson. OVER 3.5 ROUNDS (-116) is also a strong play.

Play VETTORI ON POINTS (+170) for Method of Victory, giving you a chance to nearly double your initial stake.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow @WinWithJoe on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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