The UCF Knights (6-3, 4-2 AAC) visit the SMU Mustangs (7-2, 3-2) Saturday at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET. Below, we look at the UCF vs. SMU odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
The Knights struggled in a 14-10 win over Tulane at home last Saturday, not coming close to covering as 13.5-point favorites with the Under cashing. UCF has won three straight, and the defense has been a huge reason. The Knights allowed just 8.0 points per game across the past three outings.
The Mustangs were dropped 28-25 at Memphis last Saturday, falling out of the Top 25 rankings as a result. SMU has lost and failed to cover two in a row, also losing in Houston 44-37 Oct. 30.
Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
UCF at SMU odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 4:54 p.m. ET.
- Money line: UCF +230 (bet $100 win $230) | SMU -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): UCF +7.5 (-120) | SMU -7.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 60.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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UCF at SMU odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
SMU 32, UCF 29
Money line
SMU (-300) will cost you three times your potential return. That’s a little steep considering the Mustangs have dropped two in a row, and the Knights enter on a three-game win streak.
PASS and focus on the spread.
Against the spread
UCF +7.5 (-120) is just 3-6 ATS this season, but two of those covers are within the past three games. The offense has been a little inconsistent, but the defense is banging lately. That’s good news for the Knights, but their defense will have to continue the solid play as the Mustangs feature an offense that can score quickly.
If this game were at the Bounce House, I’d feel better about UCF. As it stands, the Knights should be a sound play catching seven and the hook in Dallas.
Over/Under
The lean is to the OVER 60.5 (-115) as I think SMU will still be able to move the ball despite UCF’s recent run of strong defense. But I’d play this really, really lightly.
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