Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was the favorite to be the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL draft ever since the 2019 draft concluded.
He appeared to be on the right track to maintaining that status atop the class, but a dislocated hip suffered against Mississippi State last weekend put an end to his impressive 2019 campaign.
Now, questions surround Tagovailoa regarding his durability and recovery from the serious injury. Formerly the front-runner to go No. 1, his draft stock has taken a major hit after getting hurt.
The question is, when will he get drafted now?
Given the rise of LSU quarterback Joe Burrow this year, Tagovailoa has been unseated as the class’ top signal-caller, so being the first pick is essentially out of the question. He will likely have to fight with Oregon’s Justin Herbert to be the second quarterback selected, but Tagovailoa’s tape places him firmly over the likes of Georgia’s Jake Fromm and Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts, among others.
Sascha Paruk from Sports Betting Dime had this to say on how Tagovailoa’s injury impacts the betting market:
Prior to losing to LSU and then dislocating his hip against Mississippi State, Tua Tagovailoa was the -150 favorite to go first overall in the 2020 NFL Draft. After the injury, he’s not even on the board. LSU’s Joe Burrow is now the odds-on favorite at -200, followed by Ohio State DE Chase Young at +150. Young’s odds to go first-overall are shorter than Tua’s new odds to even go in the top ten (+200). That’s despite trends strongly favoring QBs. A quarterback has gone #1 in eight of the last 11 drafts and four of the last five. Only two defensive players have gone #1 in the last 13 years.
Sports Betting Dime currently gives Tagovailoa 2/1 odds to be a first-round pick, with his favored range being within picks 11-20 at +150. He has +200 odds to still be a top 10 pick, as well as +300 odds to fall to the 21-32 range and the same odds to be selected in Rounds 2-7.
Previously their favorite to be the top pick, as well as carrying 13/1 odds to win the Heisman Trophy, Tagovailoa still has favorable odds to end up going in the top half of the first round.
With two first-round picks after their own selection, the Miami Dolphins could still be a realistic landing spot for Tagovailoa. Other teams outside of the top 10 that could be potential suitors include the Los Angeles Chargers, Tennessee Titans and Carolina Panthers.
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