Baltimore Ravens outside linebacker Matthew Judon offers an interesting dilemma this offseason. He seems destined to hit the free-agent market where Baltimore simply won’t be able to keep up with other franchises that have a wealth of cap space to burn. If the Ravens don’t feel they’ll be able to lock up Judon to a long-term deal, trading him might be their best scenario here.
Judon is going to be one of the top options in free agency and will likely command serious money if allowed to hit the open market. Of course, the Ravens have the franchise tag available to keep Judon in town if they absolutely want, but it also has some serious ramifications on Baltimore’s salary cap while only locking him up for the 2020 season. It also leaves the option open for Judon to not sign his tender and hold out, or worse; sign the deal and still walk next offseason.
Though Baltimore has more cap space expected than in previous years, they still rank the bottom third of the league, according to Over The Cap. As of right now, 15 teams are expected to have more than $50 million available to spend this offseason, with two teams having more than $90 million in cap space. With just shy of $29 million expected to be available, according to OTC, the Ravens cannot keep up with the checkbooks of other teams if Judon gets serious interest in free agency.
Baltimore is staring down a potential repeat of last season where they lost key starters C.J. Mosley, Za’Darius Smith and Terrell Suggs for only compensatory picks in return. If the Ravens are planning on being buyers at all in free agency, they could just as easily wipe out the compensatory pick they’d acquire for Judon’s departure, which would be adding insult to injury here.
General manager Eric DeCosta might have learned from last offseason and could decide to go on the offensive here instead. As a top pending free-agent pass rusher, Judon is sure to draw interest from plenty of teams. But not every team will be interested in getting into a bidding war for his services or taking the chance they might not get him. Those teams might be far more eager to guarantee they can land Judon by trading with Baltimore and signing him to a long-term deal themselves.
From just last offseason until now, the NFL has had a bevy of trades to prove that star players can carry a lot of trade value.
The New York Jets traded defensive end Leonard Williams for a third-round pick in the 2020 NFL draft and a fifth/fourth-round pick in 2021. The Jacksonville Jaguars sent cornerback Jalen Ramsey to the Los Angeles Rams in return for two first-round picks and a fourth-rounder. The Kansas City Chiefs paid a second-round pick in the 2020 NFL draft for San Francisco 49ers defensive end Dee Ford. The Chiefs also sent defensive end Frank Clark and a third-round pick to the Seattle Seahawks in exchange for first-, second- and third-round picks.
By that history, it seems pretty likely Baltimore would net more than a third-round pick in exchange for Judon. If the Ravens can get a few teams interested, a first-round pick or more doesn’t seem to be out of the realm of possibility.
To play their options out and incentivize other teams to make a move, Baltimore could apply the franchise tag to Judon now. If Judon wants to have more control over where he goes, he could decide to not sign the tag unless he likes the destination. But that would also mean the Ravens could rescind the tag at any time before the deadline in May and still let Judon hit free agency like normal. It’s a win-win for Baltimore here given that re-signing Judon seems pretty unlikely at this point.
The Ravens still need help at pass rusher and one guy isn’t going to fix the problem, including just re-signing Judon. Baltimore would be better off picking up multiple second-tier players while using the draft to hopefully acquire an immediate game-changing talent. Trading Judon would mean the Ravens could spend their cap space on those types of free agents while giving them an extra early-round pick to either move up for a star prospect or take multiple shots at the position.
Of course, all this is dependent on other teams being interested in trading for Judon. But on the flip side, if Judon doesn’t draw much interest on the trade market, it might indicate his value as a free agent isn’t nearly as high as expected either and might push him to sign a long-term deal with Baltimore for cheaper.
There seems to be no downside to dangling Judon out as a trade option and a lot of serious upsides to trading him away.
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