The Detroit Lions are acquiring Jared Goff from the Los Angles Rams in a deal that includes a 2021 third-round pick, a 2022 first-round pick, and a 2023 first-round pick, in exchange for Matthew Stafford.
Goff gives the Detroit Lions a starter-level quarterback who has regressed over the past two seasons but offers enough talent to keep the team competitive while also serving as a potential bridge for a future quarterback.
It’s been five years since the Rams traded up to select Goff with the first overall pick in the 2016 draft. Halfway through his rookie year, he was named their starting quarterback, and like most rookie quarterbacks, he had his struggles.
The following season, Goff quickly improved and his stats went up across the board. He led the Rams to the playoffs (a loss to the Atlanta Falcons) and was recognized with a Pro Bowl appearance. In 2018, he continued to progress, led the team to the playoffs once again — this time making it to the Super Bowl, but losing to the Patriots — and was once again a Pro Bowler.
In 2019, the Rams gave Goff a $134 million deal with $110 million in guarantees. He, along with the rest of the team, had an up and down season, and despite finishing 9-7, they failed to make the playoffs. While Goff’s passing yards were close to the year prior, it took him 626 passing attempts (65 more than 2018). Additionally, his touchdowns dropped by double digits and his interceptions increased from 12 to 16.
In 2020, Goff’s passing attempts dropped back to normal amounts, and while his completion percentage increased to 67-percent, the highest of his career, his passing yards were roughly 600 less than the previous two seasons. Translation: they stopped having him throw downfield. Furthermore, both his touchdowns and interceptions also dropped, but a 20:13 ratio is not ideal.
In Week 16, Goff broke the thumb on his throwing hand and required surgery. The Rams were back in the Playoffs and they turned to John Wolford while Goff was healing. In the first quarter, Wolford left the game with an injury and Goff stepped in, leading the Rams to a 30-20 win over the Seahawks. Even though his thumb was not healed, Goff would play again the following week but they would lose to the Packers.
Goff’s resume is impressive on paper but his declining performances over the past two seasons is a big reason the Rams were willing to overpay the Lions to take his contract off their hands.
At just 26 years of age, the door isn’t shut on Goff revitalizing his career with the Lions — it’s happened before, look no further than Ryan Tannehill and the Titans — but he has shown that when he feels pressure in the pocket, he struggles to produce and that’s a significant concern.
Can the Lions get him enough pass protection? Can QB coach Mark Brunell use his 19 years of NFL quarterbacking experience to teach him how to handle the pressure? Those will surely be questions at the forefront of the Lions coaching staff this offseason.
Goff carries a $28.2 million contract into the 2021 season, with $27.5 of guaranteed, and the Lions are entering this season with the expectation that Goff will be their starter.
Beyond 2021, all bets are off.
In 2022, Goff will still have $15.5 million left in guaranteed money, but the Lions just absorbed $19 million by dealing Stafford, so that level of money won’t tie Goff to the Lions beyond 2021. If he is still on the roster in 2023, there is no guaranteed money remaining on his contract.
Because of this, adding a quarterback with the No. 7 pick in the NFL draft is still very much in play.
With four quarterbacks capable of being selected at the top of this draft, the Lions will be in a position to get value for their pick. If there is a large gap between the Lions’ quarterback rankings, they now have enough draft capital to trade up to get their guy if they need to.
If the Lions do select a quarterback in this draft class, Goff is the perfect bridge quarterback for Detroit, as they won’t feel the need to force the rookie into action early and can give him time to develop.
In today’s win-now NFL it’s rare for a first-round quarterback to be afforded the opportunity to sit and learn for a year, but it can be extremely beneficial for a young player. Notable examples are Phillip Rivers sitting for two years behind Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers sitting for three years behind Brett Farve, and Patrick Mahomes sitting a year behind Alex Smith.
The Lions have invested long contracts with general manager Brad Holmes (5 years) and coach Dan Campbell (6 years) illustrating they’re comfortable taking a long-term approach to developing this roster. Additionally, everything being said by Campbell in recent interviews points to him and Holmes making decisions now that will impact the team two years from now.
If the goal is to be in a position to have a sustainable roster by 2022 or 2023, drafting a quarterback this year should be a high priority.
If Goff turns into the next Tannehill, great. If the draft pick is the next great thing, awesome. If both happen, even better. Having options is a good problem to have.
At the end of the day, Goff’s contract is a tough pill to swallow, but the Lions likely got an extra first-round pick for taking it on, making it worth it. He is capable of starting for the Lions the next year or two (or more) and will have a chance to get his production back on track in Detroit. Adding another quarterback with the No. 7 pick is still very much in play, and at a minimum, it creates competition at the position, as well as the opportunity to not rush development.