8. Buffalo Bills
(10-5. Last week: 7)
There’s no such thing as a good loss, but Saturday’s defeat at New England was as close as it gets. The Bills went on the road and took the Patriots down to a last-minute drive. The Patriots, once again, are the kings of the AFC East. But the Bills have emerged as princes and may eventually overthrow the division dynasty. For now, the Bills are in the playoffs and locked in as the No. 5 seed. Despite the loss, they grew up some Saturday. Second-year quarterback Josh Allen went head to head with Tom Brady. Allen can make plays with his feet and his arms, and he’s only going to get better. So are the Bills. They’re a dangerous team entering this year’s playoffs. Coach Sean McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane have assembled a roster that’s going to be good for a long time.
7. Kansas City Chiefs
(11-4. Last week: 8)
Momentum is greatly important as the playoffs approach, and the Chiefs have plenty of it. In winning their fifth straight game, they played perhaps their most complete game of the season in a 26-3 victory over Chicago. Andy Reid’s team is clicking at the right time, and the Chiefs have an outside chance at the AFC’s No. 2 seed and a first-round bye. They can get it if they beat the Chargers on Sunday and the Patriots lose to the Dolphins. The latter is unlikely, but the Chiefs have positioned themselves for a playoff run either way. Everyone knows how great quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense are. But the defense also is clicking. The Chiefs have allowed only 48 points during the five-game winning streak.
6. Seattle Seahawks
(11-4. Last week: 2)
Just about all season long, the Seahawks were cruising. They entered Sunday with the lead for the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs and what seemed like an easy game against the Cardinals. So what happened? The Seahawks lost to Arizona, and they may have lost a lot more. Running backs Chris Carson and C.J. Prosise were injured, and coach Pete Carroll said both are done for the year. Left tackle Duane Brown needs knee surgery and could be done for the year. All three losses are significant, but the injury to Carson could be devastating. He had rushed for 1,230 yards and seven touchdowns and was one of the focal points of the offense. It’s impossible to replace someone like Carson. The Seahawks are going to have to tweak their offensive philosophy. They need to put more responsibility on the plate of quarterback Russell Wilson, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
5. Green Bay Packers
(12-3. Last week: 6)
It took some time to pull away, and it was nothing pretty, but the Packers defeated the Vikings on Monday night. That gave the Packers the NFC North championship. More importantly, it means Green Bay is still in the mix for the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs. It also guarantees the Packers will end up as no worse than the No. 3 seed. There was nothing flashy about this game for either team. This was old-school football, a throwback to the days of the bygone NFC Central when it was called the Black & Blue division. The NFC Central became the NFC North when it shed the Buccaneers in 2002. But this game looked like the old days. It featured a rarity — two head coaches calling plays directly against each other. Green Bay rookie head coach Matt LaFleur called the offense against Minnesota’s defense, which was directed by veteran coach Mike Zimmer. LaFleur won the battle.
4. San Francisco 49ers
(12-3. Last week: 5)
The 49ers eliminated the Rams from playoff contention with a 34-31 victory on Saturday night. More importantly, the 49ers are now in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC playoffs. They can clinch that with a victory at Seattle in Week 17. But that’s easier said than done. Seattle is one of the toughest road venues in the league, and the 49ers haven’t won there since 2011. Although San Francisco has been a bit inconsistent after an 8-3 start, this is a team with the potential to win in Seattle and do major damage in the postseason. The win against the Rams was more impressive than it sounds. Los Angeles was a Super Bowl team last season, and the Rams were playing for their playoff lives. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo was off much of the night, but he came through on the winning drive. Garoppolo may not be elite, but he’s a winner.
3. New England Patriots
(12-3. Last week: 4)
The Patriots beat the Bills to clinch their 11th consecutive AFC East title and need only a win against Miami in the regular-season finale to clinch the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye. Business as usual in New England? Not quite. The Patriots revealed a new identity against Buffalo, and this is what they’ll need to do to get back to the Super Bowl. New England won with strong defense, a solid running game and some clutch chunk plays by quarterback Tom Brady. This isn’t the offensive machine we’ve gotten used to seeing in past years, but that’s reality. There has been a lot of talk in recent weeks about New England’s lack of explosiveness at wide receiver, an area that remains a legitimate concern aside from Julian Edelman. But Brady and Bill Belichick have made some changes. The Patriots showed Saturday what they’re all about. Count them out at your own peril.
2. New Orleans Saints
(12-3. Last week: 3)
The Saints are so good they were able to cruise to a road win against Tennessee even though they didn’t play their best game. In the process, they remained in the hunt for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Seahawks and 49ers also are in the mix. But earning the No. 1 seed would be huge for the Saints. The Mercedes-Benz Superdome is one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL. I’ve been to every stadium in the league except the new ones in Atlanta and Santa Clara and the two temporary ones in Los Angeles. In my opinion, the Superdome is the loudest stadium in the league (Seattle is second). I’ve felt the building shake many times in New Orleans and have even worn ear plugs. If the noise in New Orleans can cause problems for a writer, imagine what it can do to an opposing team. The Saints are a Super Bowl contender under any circumstances, but their chances greatly increase if they get the No. 1 seed.
1. Baltimore Ravens
(13-2. Last week: 1)
For the first time in franchise history, the Ravens have earned the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. They did it with a routine victory against Cleveland. That means they get a bye and hold home-field advantage throughout the playoffs (in Baltimore’s two Super Bowl seasons, they were a No. 4 seed). The only question is whether coach John Harbaugh will sit the bulk of his starters in the season finale against Pittsburgh. Harbaugh would be foolish to play them and risk significant injuries. Let the backups play. A loss isn’t going to hurt the Ravens at all. Besides, their backups might be good enough to compete with a Pittsburgh team that will be fighting for a playoff berth. You’re usually not supposed to look ahead in the NFL. But the Ravens are the one team that can afford to do that this week.
Pat Yasinskas has covered the NFL since 1993. He has worked for The Tampa Tribune, The Charlotte Observer and ESPN.com and writes for numerous national magazines and websites. He also has served as a voter for the Pro Football Hall of Fame.