1. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
The Bengals have made solid decisions so far in free agency. Adding former Texans defensive tackle D.J. Reader is quietly one of the better signings of free agency, given what he can do in the interior both against the run and as a pocket pusher. Giving Trae Waynes a shot makes sense if they use him as more of an aggressive man-coverage cornerback. Finally, placing the franchise tag on wide receiver A.J. Green allows them to keep a key offensive weapon in place for their next quarterback.
As many expect, they will find that quarterback in the draft. Joe Burrow’s combination of pocket management, accuracy, athletic ability and competitive toughness make him an ideal fit for what awaits him in the AFC North.
2. Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
VIA trade with the Washington Redskins. Miami sends picks Nos. 5 and 18 in exchange for pick No. 2.
Now things take a turn.
Many — myself included — have advocated for Washington to stand pat with the No. 2 overall selection and draft Chase Young, the prototypical edge-rusher from Ohio State. But a case can be made for Washington actually trade out of the spot, with an eye on addressing another position, because it already has three players that can get after the passer: Ryan Kerrigan, Jonathan Allen and Montez Sweat.
So although Young is a difference-maker (and a local kid, hailing from Prince George’s County, Maryland), Washington could trade back and look to acquire an additional pick, while still addressing a need a few spots later.
From the Dolphins’ perspective, they have three first-round picks and a need at the quarterback position. Many pundits expect the draft to really begin at the third spot with the Detroit Lions, including perhaps the Dolphins themselves. If they want to make sure they get their quarterback, getting up to No. 2 makes sense.
The current climate might make drafting Tagovailoa a risk from a medical perspective, but he is a solid fit for the new offense that coordinator Chan Gailey will be bringing to Miami. A spread system rooted in West Coast elements fits Tagovailoa to a T. With Ryan Fitzpatrick in place, the Dolphins can take their time with Tagovailoa from a health perspective, and given some of the additions Miami has made in free agency so far, losing one of its other first-round picks is not a huge sacrifice.
3. Detroit Lions: Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio State
If the board unfolds this way, Matt Patricia and Bob Quinn will have a fascinating decision to make. They traded away cornerback Darius Slay during free agency, so drafting cornerback Jeff Okudah would be an enticing option. Sure, the Lions added Desmond Trufant in free agency, but a cornerback with experience in both man and combination coverage schemes who can start on Week 1 is a very safe play.
So, too, is Chase Young. A season ago, the Detroit Lions added Trey Flowers in free agency, and while Flowers nearly matched his sack total from 2018, one man does not make a pass rush on his own. Pairing Flowers with Young on the other side of the field gives Detroit a pair of pass rushers who truly can collapse pockets off the edges. When you factor in new acquisition Jamie Collins, and what he can do as a blitzer attacking the A-gaps, now you might just have a pass rush.
4. New York Giants: Tristan Wirfs, OL, Iowa
When general manager Dave Gettleman took to the podium at the NFL combine and told the media that offensive line is the most important position for a young quarterback because “… you can’t throw the ball from your back; I’ve done those studies,” it was clear to me that you could put offensive tackle in Sharpie next to the Giants’ pick in the fourth spot.
Now just which offensive tackle from the “Big Four” is a different question altogether. Between Tristan Wirfs, Mekhi Becton, Andrew Thomas and Jedrick Wills Jr., there are four very solid options for teams that want to address the position.
Wirfs’ potential flexibility up front will make him an enticing option to Gettleman. The first true freshman ever to start at offensive tackle under Kirk Ferentz, Wirfs saw the bulk of his snaps (693) at right tackle, but he also saw 161 snaps at left tackle. Others think his best position in the NFL would be to kick inside to guard. But studying him uncovers an NFL-ready tackle with the athleticism and power to handle either the left or right side. The Giants can slot him in at right tackle and keep Nate Solder at left tackle, giving them and quarterback Daniel Jones some protection up front.
5. Washington Redskins: Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State
Having traded back, Washington can still grab an immediate impact player picking from the fifth spot. Cornerback is a need, even with the acquisition of Kendall Fuller, and Ron Rivera’s defense gets a prototypical coverage corner who can start on Week 1. Okudah has great footwork, elite movement skills and ideal size and length to be a lockdown NFL corner. He can play press man and off-technique, and he can also click-and-close when playing in zone coverage.
Last season, Okudah allowed just 27 receptions on 58 targets, for only 282 yards and a 45.3 passer rating when targeted. According to charting data from Pro Football Focus, he allowed just two receptions on the 11 targets of more than 20 yards downfield. Furthermore, Okudah has not allowed more than 50 yards receiving in any game over the past two seasons. As PFF wrote of him in its draft guide: “Okudah really does have it all. The ‘cons’ on his scouting report were some of the most difficult to write of any prospect in the class. He not only has a high floor, but everything you want for a high ceiling.”
6. Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
With the departure of Philip Rivers to the Indianapolis Colts, the Chargers are looking for a quarterback for the first time in a long time. The organization appears ready to move forward with Tyrod Taylor as starting quarterback to open next season, although recent photographs of Taylor working out with free agent Cam Newton have sparked speculation that Newton could be moving to the West Coast. He would be a solid fit, schematically, in an offense that likely looks similar to what Newton has been running the past few seasons with the Carolina Panthers.
Whether it is Taylor or Newton as the Week 1 starter, the Chargers likely believe that this draft is their best chance to grab a long-term solution at the position. That brings us to Herbert. The Oregon product might face questions about the system he ran in college, and we know he has faced questions about his leadership style, but the Chargers’ offense is almost an ideal fit for his trait set. Herbert has a cannon for an arm, and showcased at Oregon the ability to read leverage and exploit it in the passing game, including the vertical parts of the playbook. After Burrow and Tagovailoa, he is the QB closest to being ready to play in the NFL, and the Chargers can grab their quarterback of the future and develop him at their own pace.
7. Carolina Panthers: Isaiah Simmons, D, Clemson
With the acquisitions of Teddy Bridgewater and P.J. Walker, quarterback is less of an immediate need for the Panthers than other positions. Looking down their roster, they need help at the linebacker spot, they need help at cornerback, and they could use help at safety. They also could look to boost their pass rush at some point this offseason.
What if they could do that with one player?
Isaiah Simmons is the future of defensive football. A hybrid type of player for which there is no comparison, which interestingly enough was his comparison in the Pro Football Focus draft guide from lead analyst Mike Renner. Of Simmons, Renner wrote, “Whether it’s the speed, the explosiveness, the length, the versatility, you name it, Simmons is probably elite at it. There really is no precedent for the skill set he brings to the table.” Last season alone Simmons saw 132 snaps at free safety, 299 at box safety, 262 at slot cornerback, 116 at defensive line and even 13 at cornerback, according to PFF’s charting. He has the size to handle tight ends and the speed to run with receivers:
Isaiah Simmons shuts down Miles Boykin in man coverage (🎥@DeanlsReal) pic.twitter.com/wCgO8axS0y
— Billy M (@BillyM_91) February 19, 2020
There is Simmons making a play on a seam route against Myles Boykin from a few seasons ago. Simmons gets spun a bit off Boykin’s release, but he recovers and runs with Boykin stride for stride and breaks up the play.
Remember, Boykin ran a 4.42 40-yard dash at his combine.
Just draft Simmons and slot him in as your starter at “defense.”
8. Arizona Cardinals: Mekhi Becton, OL, Louisville
I know, Arizona Cardinals fans, you’re probably going to yell at me again over this pick.
When I prepared my post-combine mock draft, Mekhi Becton was the player I slotted to the Cardinals with this selection. The reviews were … less than stellar.
Most of the responses clamored for a wide receiver with that selection, and I understand the allure of pairing Kyler Murray with his former Oklahoma teammate, CeeDee Lamb. Believe me, I do. I also realize that the Cardinals have made moves along the offensive line already, signing right tackle Marcus Gilbert and tackle Justin Murray, and reaching an extension with starting left tackle D.J. Humphries. I know all of this.
I also know that the Cardinals just acquired DeAndre Hopkins to play wide receiver, and as enticing as it sounds to have a 10 personnel package with Lamb, Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk, I have to believe that Arizona goes back to the trenches to make sure they have Murray protected next season.
That leads us to Becton. The Louisville standout has the size, strength and athleticism to be a stud tackle for years to come. He might face questions about his ability to be an anchor tackle in a true dropback passing game, and according to charting from Pro Football Focus, he had just 73 “true pass sets” this past season, but in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense he will be more than ready to handle what he is asked to do.