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The Toronto Blue Jays (3-3) take on the Houston Astros (1-5) Wednesday in the finale of a 3-game set at Minute Maid Park at 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Jays put together a dramatic, 9th-inning, 2-1 victory off Astros closer Josh Hader. Trailing 1-0 in the 9th, Jays LF Davis Schneider hit a 2-run, 2-out homer off Hader in the top of the inning.
The Jays scattered 6 hits off RHP Framber Valdez, but he tossed 7 2/3 shutout innings. It’s a little concerning since Toronto was no-hit the previous game. The Jays hadn’t scored a run in 19 consecutive innings until Schneider connected on the 2-run homer.
The Astros are 1-5 on the young season, but they are unleashing strikeout machine RHP Cristian Javier on the mound Thursday. The blown save foiled our Astros bet for Tuesday, but we went 2-for-3 with the Under 4.5 first 5 and Under 8.5 totals. With a 2-for-3 showing in the opener, we’re 4-for-6 on wagers in this series. Let’s see if we can sweep it Wednesday.
Blue Jays at Astros projected starters
RHP Chris Bassitt vs. RHP Cristian Javier
Bassitt (0-1, 7.20 ERA) allowed 4 earned runs on 6 hits and 2 walks, while fanning 6 in an 8-2 loss at the Tampa Bay Rays Friday.
- 2023 road stats: 8-4 with a 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 in 16 starts vs. 8-4 with a 2.86 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 8.6 K/9 in 17 home starts
- Last 5 starts vs. HOU: 3-1, 2.64 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 23 K in 31 IP
Javier (0-0, 0.00 ERA) was great in a no-decision against the visiting New York Yankees Friday, allowing 4 hits and a walk, while fanning 6 in 6 shutout frames.
- 2023 home stats: 5-2 with a 3.71 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 in 13 starts vs. 5-3 with a 5.17 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 8.4 K/9 in 18 road starts
- Career vs. Blue Jays: 1-1, 5.23 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 13 K in 2 starts, including a win last season (5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 5 K)
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Blue Jays at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:56 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Blue Jays +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Astros -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays +1.5 (-165) | Astros -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Blue Jays at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 3, Blue Jays 2
Moneyline
The Astros bullpen isn’t in the best shape after Hader threw 21 pitches Tuesday night, and they’ll likely need to go elsewhere if a save situation arises.
The starting pitching matchup is heavily favored enough in Houston’s favor that it won’t matter. TAKE ASTROS (-145).
Run line/Against the spread
I’m going to PASS on the RL again and go back to the well with UNDER 4.5 FIRST 5 INNINGS (-110).
Javier misses bats, and the Astros offense has been hit-or-miss (a lot of miss).
Over/Under
This is the best of the “Big 3” bets here. The wind is blowing in again from left-center, and we had just 3 runs Tuesday. Toronto has just 2 runs in the series. Javier will limit them again.
TAKE UNDER 9 (-120).
I’d even venture to the ALTERNATE UNDER 8.5 (+100).
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