The Toronto Blue Jays (67-55) take on the Boston Red Sox (60-64) Thursday in the finale game of a 3-game set at Fenway Park. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Blue Jays lead 12-3
The Blue Jays have won 6 of the last 7, including the first 2 games of this series. They have done it with the bats, averaging 5.4 runs per game during the stretch. The Jays are 18-12 in the last 30 and sit in the 2nd wild-card playoff spot.
The Red Sox continue to slide, having lost 5 of their 6 games. They are 7 games out of a wild-card spot and have gone just 12-18 in the last 30 games. Boston has had trouble within its division at 16-34.
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Blue Jays at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Kevin Gausman vs. RHP Kutter Crawford
Gausman (9-9, 2.99 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 129 1/3 IP.
- Road warrior: 1.65 ERA, 0.99 WHIP on the road vs. 4.63 ERA and 1.54 WHIP at home
- 2022 vs. Boston: 4 starts; 3-0, 1.38 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 12.8 K/9
Crawford (3-5, 5.14 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 68 1/3 IP.
- Allowed 3 ER on 5 H and 1 BB with 4 K in 6 IP against Toronto July 23
- Better at home: 4.08 ERA, 1.10 WHIP vs. 6.27 ERA and 1.55 WHIP on road
Blue Jays at Red Sox odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:28 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Blue Jays -180 (bet $180 to win $100) | Red Sox +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays -1.5 (-110) | Red Sox +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -135 | U: -110)
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Blue Jays at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 4, Blue Jays 3
Money line
Part of me feels like Boston bucks trends Thursday and takes this game because they’ve dropped the first 2 at home, and they’re 3-12 against Toronto this year. At some point that has to even out, and maybe it does. However, Gausman has just been too good against them. Take the BLUE JAYS FIRST 5 INNINGS (-125).
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Run line/Against the spread
The Red Sox +1.5 (-110) is at a solid price, but the data just doesn’t support it. And RL wagers on a hunch aren’t always the best ideas. PASS.
Over/Under
The Under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Boston. The Under is 4-0 in Gausman’s last 4 road starts with the total set between 7.0-8.5. The Under is 5-0 in the Blue Jays’ last 5 games with the total set between 7.0-8.5. Both teams have hit the Under in 3 of 4 games, and this feels like a tall number today. LEAN UNDER 8.5 (+110).
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