The Boston Red Sox (39-25) host the Toronto Blue Jays (31-30) for Game 2 of their four-game series Saturday at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Red Sox lead 4-2.
LHP Steven Matz makes his 13th start for the Blue Jays. Matz is 6-3 with a 4.50 ERA (64 IP, 32 ER), 1.38 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Loss, 6-3, in 4 1/3 IP with 4 ER, 8 H, 4 BB and 3 K Sunday vs. the Houston Astros.
- Matz made a start vs. Boston May 20 and picked up a no-decision with 6 IP, 5 ER, 10 H, 2 BB and 4 K in Toronto’s 8-7 loss.
- vs. Red Sox on the current roster: 65 at-bats with a .354/.382/.569 slash line, 15/2 K/BB, 4 HR and 10 RBIs.
RHP Nick Pivetta is the projected starter for the Red Sox. Pivetta is 6-1 with a 3.78 ERA (64 1/3 IP, 27 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 across 12 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in 4 2/3 IP with 2 ER, 7 H, 3 BB and 6 K in Boston’s 5-3 victory over the Miami Marlins Monday.
- Pivetta was the Red Sox’s starter in their 8-7 May 20 win, and he had 5 IP with 4 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 8 K, also earning a no-decision.
- vs. Blue Jays on the current roster: 35 at-bats with a .343/.439/.514 slash line, 9/6 K/BB, 0 HR and 7 RBIs.
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Blue Jays at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Blue Jays +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Red Sox -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Blue Jays +1.5 (-185) | Red Sox -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Red Sox 5, Blue Jays 2
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the RED SOX (-130) for a half-unit because Boston has a slight edge in the starting pitching matchup and hitting and a massive edge in relief pitching.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the RED SOX -1.5 (+150) for a quarter unit if at all because their last two victories over the Blue Jays have both been by only one run.
But, Boston’s bullpen is seventh in WAR, and the lineup could add some insurance runs against a Toronto ‘pen that ranks 21st in xFIP.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET the UNDER 9.5 (-110) for 1 unit because the Red Sox’s hitting is mediocre vs. lefties, and both pitchers performed better against their respective opponents than their basic numbers indicate.
For instance, against Boston on May 20, Matz had his second-lowest hard-hit rate and third-lowest exit velocity of the season.
But, Matz’s .429 BAbip was the second-highest of any game this season, and typically a high BAbip indicates bad luck for a pitcher.
However, the same can be said about Pivetta in that very same game as his 1.15 FIP is much lower vs. the Blue Jays than his 7.20 ERA, which is an ERA estimator.
Furthermore, Pivetta’s .467 BAbip was outrageously high while he had a low 26.7% hard-hit rate and the lowest exit velocity of any start this season at 84.3 mph.
Also, Boston’s lineup ranks sixth in WAR overall but is below-average vs. left-handed pitching in advanced hitting categories wRC+ and wOBA with the third-lowest hard-hit rate.
Finally, the play is the UNDER 9.5 (-110) because Blue Jays-Red Sox opened with a 10-run total, but the market backing the Under has cashed oddsmakers to move the total down.
I’m OK following the market on this one because the Under is being backed despite both lineups having a ton of firepower and the starters being more mediocre than effective.
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