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The Toronto Blue Jays (18-22) and Baltimore Orioles (26-13) open a 3-game series Monday. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET (MLB.TV Free Game of the Day). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2024; Orioles won 10 of 13 games in 2023
Toronto is back on the road after an abbreviated 3-game weekend homestand against the Minnesota Twins. The Twins took 2 of 3 from the Blue Jays, who are now just 5-12 since April 23.
Baltimore lost to the Arizona Diamondbacks Sunday but is 7-2 with a 2.44 ERA over its last 9 games. The Orioles head into the middle week of May with the best record in the American League.
Blue Jays at Orioles projected starters
RHP Jose Berrios vs. RHP Corbin Burnes
Berrios (4-3, 2.85 ERA) is lined up for his 9th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 47 1/3 innings.
- Last outing: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 8 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 10-1 loss at Philadelphia Phillies Tuesday
- Career vs. Orioles: 10-1, 2.98 ERA (90 2/3 IP, 30 ER), 82 H, 17 BB, 76 K in 14 starts, including 1-1 with a 3.29 ERA (13 2/3 IP, 5 ER) in 2 starts last season
Burnes (3-2, 2.83 ERA) is making his 9th start. He has a 0.97 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 47 2/3 innings.
- Last outing: Loss, 6 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 3-0 loss at Washington Nationals Tuesday
- Career vs. Blue Jays: 1-0, 3.52 ERA (7 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 5 H, 2 BB, 9 K in 1 start, a 5-4 home victory with Milwaukee Brewers June 25, 2022
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Blue Jays at Orioles odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:38 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Blue Jays +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Orioles -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays +1.5 (-140) | Orioles -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Blue Jays at Orioles picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 5, Blue Jays 4
Moneyline
BALTIMORE (-175) is 6-2 over its last 8 games against Toronto. In last year’s season series, the Orioles were a plus-35 in run differential.
Toronto has averaged just 3.68 runs per game while allowing 4.85, and a compelling case can be made that the Blue Jays have been fortunate to thus far log a .450 winning percentage.
Both starters have been a bit fortunate with batting averages on balls in play. Both have expected ERA figures over that of their surface numbers, but Berrios is likely much further from his settling point.
His BABIP in inning lead-off situations is .206; with runners in scoring position, his BABIP is .111. On the road, Berrios has registered a 4.96 ERA since 2022 (vs. 3.48 at home).
Burnes owns a 2.51 ERA at home this season. He gets more ground balls than Berrios, and they could prove as a big key with a weather report calling for a double-digit outward-blowing breeze.
BET THE ORIOLES (-175).
Run line/Against the spread
An Orioles -1.5 price of +130 or better would make for value here. Otherwise, PASS.
Over/Under
Toronto’s last road trip was comprised of 5 games, and the Over went 4-1.
The batter’s breeze, fade of the starters and Toronto bullpen (a bottom-5 unit) play into a solid Over lean in this one.
It looks like the pitching surface lines are getting too much credit here. There is value on the OVER 8 (-105).
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