One of the many frustrations with the Minnesota Vikings’ 0-3 start has been the turnovers. Nine of them across three games is brutal for both fans watching the game and also for their record.
When you take a look at win probability added based on certain plays, the Vikings were fifth in the league last year. They were very advantageous in situations last season and went 11-0 in one-score games.
This year? It’s the exact opposite, as they are last in the National Football League.
Here is the 2023 Win Prob added via luck dashboard updated thru week 3.
Some notes:
– DET leads NFL and has play with highest WP gain (K.Toney dropped pass which became interception TD in wk 1 vs KC)
– MIN drops to last after being 5th in '22
– HOU, KC, NE close to net 0 WPA pic.twitter.com/9RlXsX5nxm— Tom Bliss (@DataWithBliss) September 26, 2023
The plays that are used in this exercise by Tom Bliss are as follows:
- Dropped interception by the opponent
- Dropped pass by opponent
- Field goals and extra points attempted by the opponent
- Fumble recoveries by either team
With the Vikings, they were negative in all four, but the most egregious was the field goals and extra points. The Vikings are giving up too many chances and their opponents are taking advantage.
Theoretically, the Vikings will regress to the mean and be much better than worst in the National Football League. Things aren’t great right now, but it’s easy to see a better path forward.
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