The Packers cannot be trusted, Giants are ruiners supreme and 8 things we learned in Week 17

Also, Aaron Rodgers cannot return to New York, Joe Burrow has an MVP case (but won’t win) and Baker Mayfield is great (as long as his blocking’s there).

The penultimate week of the 2024 NFL regular season was… unpleasant.

Christmas gave way to a new day for the league to monetize and spread 16 games across five days. Typically, that would be exciting news — especially with a handful of games between contenders destined to alter the 14 postseason paths to Super Bowl 59.

Instead, we got blowouts and bad football. The Kansas City Chiefs rolled the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Houston Texans scored two total points against the Baltimore Ravens. The Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears combined for nine points.

While Saturday’s Cincinnati Bengals – Denver Broncos was a fireworks display unto itself, the majority of Week 17 was uncompelling football. Even Sunday’s marquee game between the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers was a listless slog before Green Bay made a late rally in a 27-25 loss.

So what stood out in a week of forgettable matchups? Let’s talk about it.

[Please bear with me for any Twitter embed issues. Our editing software has become a whole problem on that front the past couple weeks. Rest assured, if there’s a play alluded to in the text it’s worth clicking through to see if it didn’t make it into the article itself.]

1. The New York Jets are rotting from the head down

Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images

The Jets’ 40-14 loss was somehow worse than the final score suggests. It all starts with the veteran quarterback whose body language is bleeding through an undisciplined team that’s crumbled around him.

From The Jets cannot allow Aaron Rodgers to return:

No one reflects the sorry condition of the 2024 Jets than its headlining attraction. The bad vibes are emanating from within. No one is happy with a 4-12 team, obviously, but Aaron Rodgers’s visible frustration combined with his status as a veteran leader only exacerbates that.

Rodgers can fault whomever he likes for New York’s struggles, but no one shoulders more blame than the four-time MVP who was supposed to provide deliverance from the Christian Hackenbergs and Zach Wilsons of the football world. Instead, a 39-year-old player coming off his worst season as a starter has aged even worse than expected thanks to the torn Achilles that ended his 2023 after four snaps.

The mobility he used to extend plays has taken a definite hit. His pocket awareness has crumbled alongside his blocking. The situations from which he used to weave magic from thin air have instead been gentle gusts pushing this offense backward.

ok now i’m starting to feel a little bad

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— Christian D’Andrea (@trainisland.bsky.social) December 29, 2024 at 1:59 PM

All the while, Rodgers’s outward demeanor has phased from smiling disbelief to passive aggressive hostility. Sometimes its directed at players (see above). Sometimes it’s reflected back at his own sideline.

looks like Aaron Rodgers thinks running out of shotgun on 4th-and-short is just as stupid as the rest of us do

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— Christian D’Andrea (@trainisland.bsky.social) December 29, 2024 at 12:31 PM

That tone has bled through the roster. New York has devolved into a poorly coached mess because the Jets were put in a position where they couldn’t fire the quarterback so Saleh got tossed instead. That’s led to a total defensive collapse, certainly, but this team is an undisciplined jumble of talented players who add up to significantly less than the sum of its parts.

Read the full piece here.

2. Joe Burrow has a legitimate MVP case (but not as good as Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson

The Enquirer

Micah Parsons knows who he’s voting for in the 2024 MVP race. If the Cincinnati Bengals make the playoffs, that is. And if he actually had a vote.

But the pass rushing savant and undeniable knower of ball understands just how significant Cincinnati’s rally from 4-8 to a place in the playoff race heading into Week 18 is. And he knows exactly who’s driving the Bengals beyond the limits of their suddenly shoddy defense.

Joe Burrow leads the NFL in passing yards (4,641) and touchdowns (42). He’s the engine behind the league’s top passing offense. He’s got Cincinnati back to .500 despite a defense that’s allowed more points this year than all but four other teams. But even if he somehow converts what The Athletic estimates is a seven percent chance to make the playoffs, he’s not going to be MVP. He might not even crack the top three when votes are counted.

That’s how good Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Saquon Barkley have been. All three were vital to their own respective blowouts this week.

Allen threw for a pair of touchdowns and ran for one more in a 40-14 dismantling of the unhappy Jets. That light lift didn’t do too much to pad his stats but brought him up to 40 total touchdowns in 16 games. That includes one incredible pass to Amari Cooper and a couple that wound up not counting on the box score due to either penalties or drops.

neither of Josh Allen’s best plays this half counted (penalty, drop) but i cannot imagine the frustration of having to play against this man

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— Christian D’Andrea (@trainisland.bsky.social) December 29, 2024 at 1:08 PM

Jackson embarrassed the Houston Texans 31-2 and had 255 total yards and three touchdowns on just 19 touches (15 passes, four carries). That puts him at 43 touchdowns on the year — as many or more than he had in either of his two previous MVP campaigns.

Barkley became just the ninth running back to break the 2,000 rushing yard barrier in a single NFL season. He’s 100 yards away from tying Eric Dickerson’s record of 2,105.

All four of these players have a valid claim for most valuable player. Ultimately, this year’s quarterback play may have been too good for even a historic season from Barkley to break through. And as good as Burrow has been, it will be incredibly difficult to sway voters on a team with a single-digit chance of making the playoffs this winter.

That leaves it down to Allen and Jackson — an argument in which neither side is wrong. For me, Allen’s ability to stave off what looked like a rebuild and continue to thrive despite an underwhelming receiving corps is enough to give him the nod for my PFWA vote. But I still have time to change my mind and plenty of tape left to grind.

No matter who I choose, however, I’m gonna be OK with the outcome.

3. The Philadelphia Eagles are a death machine (but it came against the Cowboys, so…)

Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Facing fourth-and-one near midfield typically means one thing for the Eagles. A compressed formation, a snap under center and a rugby-style push for first down. In 2023, Philadelphia’s 73 percent fourth down conversion rate was nearly seven full points higher than second place Tampa Bay.

But in Week 17, head coach Nick Sirianni stared down fourth-and-one at his own 46 in need of a win to keep pace in his race for the NFC’s top seed and a playoff bye. Then he blinked. Out came punter Braden Mann for a kick that bounced into the end zone for a touchback.

This wasn’t the only indication the Eagles were playing without Jalen Hurts behind center. If we’re being honest, this was the dead giveaway:

I thought the football turned into an anvil

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— Nate Tice (@natetice.bsky.social) December 29, 2024 at 12:58 PM

But Kenny Pickett’s act of premium mime-ery — THE MAN THREW HIMSELF INSTEAD OF THE BALL — barely made a dent in Philadelphia’s win probability against the Dallas Cowboys. Not even Pickett’s third quarter departure due to a rib injury could slow this offense down. 2023 sixth-round draft pick Tanner McKee entered the game, threw four passes and found the end zone twice.

One week after Hurts’s head injury created the latitude for the Washington Commanders to earn an upset win, McKee and Pickett led a charge that locked the Commanders out of the NFC East title race and ensured, at the very least, a home playoff game in Pennsylvania.

How? Thanks to the rising tide around the quarterback position and an overwhelmed opponent. The defense that had gotten sliced up by Olamide Zaccheaus and Jamison Crowder in the fourth quarter of last week’s collapse shoved Cooper Rush into a locker. Without CeeDee Lamb in the lineup, the Cowboys offense averaged just 5.2 yards per pass attempt. The secondary held Rush to a piddling 50.7 passer rating.

The offense also showcased its star power. DeVonta Smith had two touchdowns and nearly a third thanks to Pickett dialing it back to his Pittsburgh Steelers days and delivering three good passes per game.

in conclusion, Kenny Pickett is a land of contrasts

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— Christian D’Andrea (@trainisland.bsky.social) December 29, 2024 at 1:31 PM

A.J. Brown found the end zone. Saquon Barkley ran for 167 yards, putting him just 100 away from the NFL’s single season record. The offense didn’t need a heroic effort to put up 40-plus points, it just needed someone who could operate within the narrow confines of a smaller playbook and get the ball to the guys who can do the most with it.

That’s what Pickett and McKee did, even if that meant Pickett botching a goal line Tush Push in the second half to help validate Sirianni’s first quarter decision to punt (he rode a wave of blockers into the end zone one play later). It’s also a reminder of how dangerous this team can be with a healthy Hurts.

You don’t get extra credit for rolling a shorthanded Cowboys team at home, but you can make a statement by doing so with your third-string quarterback. Philadelphia can survive a Hurts playoff slump, but it can thrive if he’s back to his Week 15 self (where he carved up the Steelers for 290 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns). There’s more to the Eagles’ playbook than just “get the ball to Brown/Smith/Barkley,” but Philly can be a real headache even when that’s all a diminished quarterback has to do.

In a week where cracks could have begun to show without Hurts in the lineup, that’s a statement to which the rest of the NFC has to pay attention.

4. The Buccaneers refuse to go quietly into their goodnight thanks to Baker Mayfield (as long as he’s not pressured)

Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Tampa Bay rallied to the top of the NFC South in Week 15, then ceded that position back to the Atlanta Falcons by losing to the Cooper Rush Cowboys in Week 16. Sunday’s game against the Carolina Panthers wasn’t quite a must-win situation, but a slip up against an upset-hungry division rival would have been brutal to the team’s playoff hopes.

Baker Mayfield understood this. He also knew he was up against a Panthers defense that ranked 26th in EPA allowed per dropback and dead last in pressure rate.

By those powers combined, Mayfield put up a video game type performance.

Mayfield threw as many incomplete passes (five) as touchdowns in a 48-14 rout over a feisty Carolina team who’d knocked the Arizona Cardinals out of playoff contention a week earlier. One look at his passing chart shows how diversely he was able to grind a bad defense down to dust.

via habitatring.com

This was impressive when Mayfield was putting together games like this with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Cade Otton in the lineup. On Sunday, he only had Evans, who had a very Mike Evans game with eight catches, 97 yards and a pair of touchdown catches from short range. Behind him, the following players all had at least 36 receiving yards:

  • Bucky Irving
  • Devin Culp
  • Jalen McMillan
  • Payne Durham

The connective tissue between them is Mayfield’s reads and placement. But as good as Sunday’s performance was — and no matter how you slice it, 359 yards and five passing touchdowns without a turnover is AWESOME — there remains room for concern. There’s skill involved in throws like these, but the degree of difficulty was undeniably low.

The Panthers’ inability to rustle Mayfield was the source of their pain. Mayfield has been effective against the blitz because of pickups like the one seen above — his passer rating actually improves from 101.1 to 109.4 when defenses bring an extra attacker, even if his EPA/snap drops thanks to more sacks taken. His strength is his vision, and when that newfound pass rusher enters the fray he’s able to identify where it’s coming from, the hole it leaves and the single coverage opportunities that persist.

If that blitz doesn’t get home, it’s disastrous. But if it does, it’s a big deal. Mayfield’s rating drops from 108.3 without pressure to 83.4 when someone breaches his pocket. His EPA/dropback falls from 0.22 to -0.27.

In Week 16, the Cowboys let him throw for 303 yards but brought pressure on 36 percent of his dropbacks between a balance of blitzes and successful four-man rushes in a win. The Denver Broncos introduced pressure on 45 percent of his pass plays in Week 3 and held him to 163 passing yards on 40 dropbacks… in a win.

That’s not a guarantor of success — both the Las Vegas Raiders and Detroit Lions sacked him at least four times in Tampa Bay victories — but it’s a great place to start. Mayfield thrived for several reasons Sunday, including a weak Panthers secondary. But he was able to make these easy throws and breeze to a stupefying stat line because Carolina rarely made him uncomfortable.

Should the Bucs make it to the postseason, opponents will know just what to do. They’ve got to create pressure while mitigating the risk of Tampa’s strong blitz pickups and Mayfield’s ability to exploit it. That’s a fine line to walk — and one Mayfield might wind up sprinting across anyway.

5. There are no losers in the Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Ladd McConkey vs. Malik Nabers debate

Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images

Week 17 was a remarkable one for rookie wide receivers. Marvin Harrison Jr. had six catches for 96 yards as the Arizona Cardinals late rally against the Los Angeles Rams fell short. Xavier Worthy had 89 total yards and a touchdown against the Steelers. Xavier Legette brought enough raccoon meat to the Panthers’ locker room to share with reporters.

But three players stood above the rest, just as they’ve been doing all season.

Ladd McConkey, Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers each walked off their respective fields this weekend as winners — something that’s far from guaranteed when Thomas Jr. and Nabers play for the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Giants, respectively. Each was absolutely vital to his team’s effort.

McConkey kicked things off Saturday, continuing an epic tradition in which wideouts the New England Patriots failed to draft rise up to torch them.

McConkey has been an absolute animal for a Los Angeles team starved for receiving help. The second round pick is up to 1,054 receiving yards on the season thanks to his ability to break off defenders with clean routes and split double teams. He’s a menace across the field whose 2.63 yards per route run (YPRR) rank ninth in the NFL among wideouts with at least 200 routes. That’s one spot ahead of Ja’Marr Chase and 90 in front of Ja’Lynn Polk, the wideout New England selected after trading back and giving the Chargers the 34th overall pick (Polk, at 0.39 YPRR, is dead last among qualified WRs).

Thomas Jr. has had a higher degree of difficulty. He’s part of a similarly thin depth chart at wideout, but his quarterbacks this season have been a not-quite-right Trevor Lawrence and (big sigh) Mac Jones.

On Sunday he became just the fourth rookie wideout to have at least 1,100 receiving yards (he’s at 1,179) and 10 touchdowns, joining Randy Moss, Ja’Marr Chase and Odell Beckham Jr. That is absurd company to keep.

I’ve already expounded on how good he’s been — and how his run-after-catch ability is the perfect balm to heal a burned quarterback like Jones — but it bears repeating. Jacksonville’s search for a true alpha wideout alongside Lawrence appears to have finally found its man.

While those two each have high profile quarterbacks behind them, Nabers decidedly does not. In his debut season he’s caught passes from Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito and Drew Lock. On Sunday, he helped guide Lock to the best game of his career.

Lock threw for 309 yards and four touchdowns despite attempting only four passes that traveled more than 13 yards downfield. Nabers, with seven catches on eight targets, 171 yards and two touchdowns, was the primary beneficiary of his quarterback’s competence and the Indianapolis Colts drastic lack thereof.

It would be tempting to consider that stat and the highlight above and consider Nabers a short-range savant. This is incorrect.

Nabers came into the league with one of the most polished skill sets of any member of this rookie class. While he’d only caught three of 21 deep balls this year, that’s as much a function of his weak quarterbacking as anything else. When given a chance to get to the ball, he thrives — as evidenced by his 65 percent catch rate and 0.69 EPA per target when running routes between 10 and 19 yards downfield.

This intermediate wizardry is a function of his overall skill set. He can win one-on-one. He can sit down in zone coverage and find holes. He can be the WR1 who allows the other wideouts in New York to fit into better defined roles, allowing Wan’Dale Robinson to be a run-after-catch wizard and allowing Darius Slayton to run the downfield routes he can exploit for big gains.

All three rookies are foundational pieces for teams in dire need of playmakers. McConkey is in the best position of the three, but both Nabers and Thomas will be undeniably important to the rebuilding of their respective franchises. Time will tell which one of these players will have the best career — for my money, it’ll be Nabers if he’s even given a semi-competent long-term quarterback — but for now the Chargers, Jaguars and Giants have struck gold.

6. The Indianapolis Colts do not deserve nice things

Julian Leshay Guadalupe/NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Colts had a flicker of hope coming into Week 17. They were still part of the AFC playoff race, albeit way out in the periphery thanks to an 7-8 start. Their 18 percent Wild Card odds, per The Athletic, rested on the shoulder of Joe Flacco — the backup quarterback who’d earlier been pressed into action in place of Anthony Richardson thanks to the young passer’s accuracy concerns.

If Flacco and a hungry roster of homegrown players could beat the NFL’s worst team, they’d keep their postseason hopes alive.

That is not what Flacco and his hungry roster did.

The Colts offense without Richardson shrunk, but their defense was an abject disaster. This is a unit that’s been uniquely bad in genuinely baffling ways. Indianapolis has given up more than 300 net passing yards only three times in 2024. Those came against:

  • Trevor Lawrence and a Jaguars team that’s currently 4-12
  • Caleb Williams and a Chicago Bears team that’s currently 4-12
  • and Drew Lock’s Giants, who are now 3-13.

That’s remarkable! Indianapolis held Jordan Love to 122 net passing yards early in the season but nearly gave up three times that much to Drew by-god Lock! The Colts lost two of those games, only surviving the Bears.

That’s not what a playoff team does, and indeed Indianapolis will not be a playoff team. New York had 10 different plays that picked up at least 12 yards. Their touchdowns came on a 100-yard kickoff return and passing plays of 31, 32 and 59 yards. This was a team that ranked in the bottom five when it came to explosive play rate, in large part because the offensive line was awful and its quarterbacks were Jones, DeVito and Lock. Yet on Sunday, facing a team who had every reason to treat Week 17 like a de facto playoff game, they feasted.

This shattered the illusion the Colts could even be a modest spoiler in the postseason. General manager Chris Ballard opted to keep the band together in 2024, re-signing a bevy of free agents in hopes a healthy Anthony Richardson could bring this team back to the playoffs. But this was a terrible idea, because Richardson is neither a pass rusher or a cornerback and the holes left on that side of the ball were so huge even the New York Giants could drive their rickety jalopy through them.

7. The Green Bay Packers cannot be trusted in the playoffs

Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

Sometimes, not even Toyotathon can save Jordan Love.

The young quarterback turned on the jets last season as the weather grew cold and the Japanese automaker began its holiday sales push. History repeated itself in 2024 as an early injury sapped his effectiveness before he was able to rally the Packers to an 11-4 record. The only thing missing was a signature win after losses to the Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings.

A Week 17 rematch in Minneapolis gave him the opportunity to rectify that. Love could not.

The fifth-year quarterback fell silent for the bulk of Sunday’s national broadcast. He had only 54 passing yards through the first 50 minutes as Green Bay fell into a 17-point third quarter hole. The downfield passing and wide open targets had been erased by Brian Flores and a defense that threw a multitude of looks at Love’s offense. He was hit or sacked on 33 percent of his dropbacks and, importantly, either didn’t have or couldn’t find the free runners that make the Packer offense so dangerous.

Love completed just four of his 13 passes that traveled at least nine yards downfield.

via habitatring.com

That’s not entirely surprising — he’s completing only 45 percent of his throws 10-plus yards downfield this fall — but it’s absolutely brutal for the Green Bay offense. Tucker Kraft’s 35-yard catch-and-run was the team’s only play that sprang for more than 19 yards. In Week 14 against the similarly impressive Detroit Lions Love’s offense had six such plays. Against the Seattle Seahawks’ rising defense in Week 15, it had seven if you include pass interference penalties.

This is how the Packers feast or starve. Without big chunk plays, they wind up stuck in neutral for long stretches. But what’s more concerning is the sudden lack of protein in their diet of victories. After falling Sunday night, Green Bay’s best win is over… the Los Angeles Rams in the midst of a 1-4 start? An underwhelming Houston Texans team? The desiccated husk of the San Francisco 49ers?

The Green Bay Packers are difficult to trust. They’re beating the teams they’re supposed to, but losing when paired up against actual contenders. Week 17 was their last chance to prove it with the safety net of the regular season as a backdrop. Their next failure against an actual contender will spell the end of their Super Bowl quest.

8. Fantasy team you absolutely didn’t want to field in Week 17

Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images
  • QB: C.J. Stroud, Texans (185 passing yards,  one interception, seven rushing yards, five sacks, 8.0 fantasy points)
  • RB: James Conner, Cardinals (four rushing yards, two catches, four receiving yards, 2.8 fantasy points)
  • RB: Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots (one rushing yard, 0.1 fantasy points)
  • WR: Jayden Reed, Packers (one catch, six yards, 1.6 fantasy points)
  • WR: DeAndre Hopkins, Chiefs (two catches, seven yards, 2.7 fantasy points)
  • WR: Cooper Kupp, Rams (one catch, 29 yards, 3.9 fantasy points)
  • TE: Jake Ferguson, Cowboys (three catches, 18 yards, 4.8 fantasy points)
  • D/ST: Indianapolis Colts (45 points allowed, -8.0 fantasy points)

Total: 15.9 points