The Miami Dolphins have been the most explosive offense by a comfortable margin in the first half of the NFL season. The Miami Dolphins have a ton of playmakers that are amongst the best at their position. The Miami Dolphins also haven’t beaten a good team.
The South Beach All-Star track team is 6-3 and sit atop the AFC East, one game ahead of the 5-4 Buffalo Bills. However, the Dolphins have yet to beat a team with a winning record, and are 0-3 in their biggest games this season while being outscored 100-51 in those tilts.
The combined record of the teams in which they have beaten is 10-30. In those games, they averaged 498 yards of offense and beat teams by an average score of 39-21. In their three losses, however, they have averaged 310 yards of offense and been outscored by an average score of 33-17.
Not only have the Dolphins comer up short against good teams, but good teams with great defenses. The Bills defense was still at full strength before Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White went down for the year. The Chiefs are a top 10 defense in both yards allowed and EPA. The Eagles are a top 10 unit in defensive rush success rate.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa also has polar opposite numbers in the Dolphins’ wins compared to their losses. In the six victories, Tua is averaging 320 yards/game with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions. In the three losses, he is averaging 230 yards/game with three touchdowns and two interceptions.
Now, there is good news and bad news for Miami. The good news is their next five games are as follows:
- vs. Raiders
- at Jets
- at Commanders
- vs. Titans
- vs. Jets
Barring a glaring upset, those should all be wins. The bad news, however, is their final three games of the year are a gauntlet. In the last three weeks, they host the Cowboys, travel to Baltimore to play the Ravens, and close out with a home game against the Bills. If Buffalo can keep the division within a game, Week 18 will be for the AFC East crown- Josh Allen is 9-2 against the Dolphins in his career.
The Dolphins simply need more from all parties when playing the top-tier teams in the league. Their offense can’t just disappear, and their defense can’t give up 30+ points at every turn. The addition of Vic Fangio was supposed to be a monumental signing for Miami, but so far it’s been crickets from that side of the ball. It’s great that they can run rough shot over the middle and lower class of the NFL, but they aren’t going to be playing the Giants in January. The AFC playoffs are going to be much tougher than a trip up to Carolina.
Right now, the question is can Miami go up to Cincinnati and win a playoff game in Paycor Stadium? Can they beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead? Can they beat the Ravens in M&T Bank Stadium? If you answered yes, you’d have a hard time defending your stance. Dolphins fans may say this narrative that they can’t win big games is unfair, but there is a way they can shed that label- they can win. And to this point, they haven’t.