We here at For The Win love win probability charts, which sometime tell the story of a game in one graphic, from the Chiefs-Bills chart in 2022 to the Niners’ Super Bowl collapse against Kansas City.
This one is a fun one: It’s the Miami Dolphins blowing a 14-point lead to the Tennessee Titans with just over three minutes left in Monday night’s game. It was an improbable comeback, one that seemed like the Titans had a zero percent chance at.
But nope. It was 0.4 percent. And the chart tells the tale, with the Titans’ line suddenly soaring upward.
Pretty wild stuff:
According to the NGS win probability model, the @Titans' win probability was as low as 0.4% when they trailed the Dolphins 27-13 with 3:08 left in regulation.
The win goes down as the 2nd-most statistically improbable comeback in the NGS era.#TENvsMIA | #Titans pic.twitter.com/03vii31XK1
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 12, 2023