The defending NBA champion Milwaukee Bucks will likely have to play their entire second-round series against the Boston Celtics without All-Star Khris Middleton, The Athletic’s Shams Charania reports. Middleton has a Grade 2 MCL sprain that could keep him out through the Eastern Conference Finals if Milwaukee were to advance.
I don’t say this with ease about a championship roster, especially one with two-time MVP and reigning Finals MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, but I think the injury dooms their chances to get past Boston, let alone repeat.
Sportsbooks are already preparing for the Celtics to advance, as you’re only getting -190 odds for them to win the series on Tipico Sportsbook. I’d fade that bet and take the value on how many games they get it done. Out of respect for the Bucks and Antetokounmpo’s ability to will them to a couple wins, I like the Celtics in six at +400 odds.
The left MCL injury of Bucks All-Star Khris Middleton is a Grade 2 sprain and he is expected to miss the entire second-round series vs. Celtics, sources tell @TheAthletic @Stadium. The recovery of Grade 2 MCL places a potential Conference Finals in jeopardy for him as well.
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) April 28, 2022
Middleton is such a vital part of the Bucks’ success. He’s the team’s second leading scorer at 20 points per game, one of their few players who can create offense for himself, and he’s also one of their best and lengthiest perimeter defenders. The way the Celtics are playing right now, Milwaukee was going to have its hands full even if he was playing. Without him, I don’t think they have a shot to win four games.
Boston was the best defensive team in the regular season and that translated in the first round where they largely held Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in check during a first-round sweep of the Nets. With Middleton out, they can focus more of that defensive attention on Antetokounmpo and force others to beat them. They also have Robert Williams back from injury, their best interior defender and someone who will be key in slowing Antetokounmpo.
Milwaukee’s supporting cast is better than Brooklyn’s, another reason I think the Bucks can still take a couple games. Jrue Holiday can create for himself and others, and they have plenty of shooters on the perimeter. But Boston scores the ball well too — they have the second best offensive rating in these playoffs and were tied for the best net rating in the regular season. So unless Antetokounmpo finds a way to average 40 points, I love Boston’s chances to make it back to the conference finals for the second time in three years.
The Celtics are 4.5-point favorites for Game 1 on Sunday.