There are certainly reasons for the Wisconsin Badgers to be worried about the Minnesota Golden Gophers, but what is their main reason to feel confident on Saturday? One could come up with several legitimate answers. This is not a “there’s only one right answer” kind of question. However, I do feel that one answer stands out more than others.
You will recall how poorly Wisconsin played against Illinois. That was a distracted, uneven, emotionally subdued game the week before a big clash against Ohio State. Would that loss to Illinois lead to a dispirited, disjointed Wisconsin team in Columbus? No, it did not. Wisconsin lost to a better team that day, but the Badgers’ defense played its best 25 minutes of the season at the start of that game.
Yes, Wisconsin thrashed Michigan and casually brushed aside Michigan State. The statistics looked better and the thrill of emphatic wins certainly felt better. Yet, when adjusted for the caliber of opposition, Wisconsin standing up to Ohio State’s loaded offense in the first 25 minutes of play — allowing a measly field goal to a juggernaut — strikes me as UW’s best 25 minutes of defense this season.
The key point is that UW played elite defense one week after playing subpar defense. That tells me Wisconsin can put ordinary performances in the rearview mirror; adjust; and learn from mistakes. That first half against Ohio State told me that Jim Leonhard can — and probably WILL — have his group ready to handle what P.J. Fleck has in mind for the Badgers.
Yes, without question, a big reason for Wisconsin to be confident against Minnesota is the play of the offensive line in tandem with Jonathan Taylor. That running game can win in Minneapolis. That offense can control the ball and keep the Gophers’ offense off the field. Yes, it is painfully clear that the defense’s difficult second half against Ohio State was a product of the offense not keeping the ball as much as anything else. Wisconsin is in better position to help its defense in this game against Minnesota. If you want to cite that reason as the main source of confidence for UW against the U of M, I wouldn’t really argue with that.
I would only emphasize that even if Wisconsin’s offense helps the defense in this game, there will be moments when the Badgers’ defense will have to be self-sufficient. I don’t see Wisconsin scoring every time it touches the ball. I also don’t see UW completely shutting down Minnesota, either. My more precise point is that the Badgers will need to go through a 10- or 15-minute period in this game when their offense isn’t clicking, and they need to hunker down and thwart Minnesota’s offense. No, that dynamic probably can’t be sustained for 45 minutes. No, that dynamic definitely won’t be sustained for the full 60 minutes. It CAN be sustained for 10 to 15, and even for 25… as we saw against Ohio State, before the Buckeyes finally scored a touchdown late in the first half and then gained momentum after halftime.
Wisconsin’s defense slept against Illinois and then awakened in a magnificent first-half performance against an elite offense in Columbus. That is the foremost reason for the Badgers to expect success — and conquest — against Minnesota in the game of the year for both sides.