Looking forward to a fall off for the Texas Longhorns (12-2) after the 2023 season? You might have to wait another year after an impressive transfer portal haul.
ESPN’s Bill Connelly, who compiles SP+ rankings for college football teams, has the Longhorns toward the top of their new conference in returning production. Unlike in years prior to the transfer portal, impact additions from other squads are included.
For the Longhorns, that means Alabama receivers Isaiah Bond and Amari Niblack, Houston receiver Matthew Golden and Oregon State receiver Silas Bolden’s stats will be credited to Texas’ returning production.
Connelly described how returning production is determined.
“Who returns a majority of last year’s production (or has done the best job of importing production from another team)? Who is starting from scratch?”
The key phrase for Texas comes between parentheses: “or (who) has done the best job of importing production from another team?” Given what the Longhorns lost in receivers Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell, Ja’Tavion Sanders and Jordan Whittington, the team has done as well as anybody at importing production through the transfer portal.
Texas ranks No. 25 overall in Connelly’s returning production model. Starting quarterback Quinn Ewers is a significant returning player for the team. Only Texas A&M (No. 18) ranks ahead of the Longhorns. Perhaps the Aggies will be better than we originally predicted.
Missouri (No. 31), Florida (No. 32) and Georgia (No. 47) round out the SEC’s top five teams in returning production. Other notable teams on the list are LSU (No. 60), Oklahoma (No. 67), Ole Miss (No. 68), Tennessee (No. 94) and Alabama (No. 115).
Many were confused at our prospects for the Alabama Crimson Tide next season. Despite returning quarterback Jalen Milroe, who added 3,365 total yards and 35 total touchdowns in 2023, NFL departures and the loss of key transfers, including Niblack and Bond, drove the Tide’s returning production rate down.
The Alabama you last saw won’t be the team that takes the field next season, and No. 115 of 134 teams is an eye-opening number.
Elsewhere, the LSU Tigers, Oklahoma Sooners and Ole Miss Rebels rank from No. 8-10 in the SEC for returning production. While Ole Miss upgraded at several positions, the loss of now Ohio State running back Quinshon Judkins probably weighs heavily into the numbers for the Rebels.
Oklahoma returns most of its top defensive players and one of the best receiver rooms in college football. Albeit, much of the lost production comes from the departure of dual threat starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel. New quarterback Jackson Arnold should meet or come close to the production numbers of Gabriel despite likely higher turnover numbers.
Returning production can be play a noticeable role in how a team performs. Texas will look to leverage its advantage into wins in 2024.